I want to estimate short- and long-run price elasticities for energy demand using a dynamic panel regression. My data contains of large N (>1000) and small T (12). I started with an ARDL representation as follows:
$EC_{it} = c + \sum_{j=1}^p \phi EC_{i,t-j} + \sum_{i=0}^q \theta X_{i, t-i} + \epsilon_{it}$
To estimate the parameters I would use the ARDL-PMG estimator, however the literature tells me these are biased for small T. For small T dynamic panel models the Arellano-Bond estimator is proposed, however, is it possible to estimate short-run elasticities using this estimator and furthermore I cannot find how this estimator deals with I(0)/I(1) variables (which is clear for the ARDL specification).
Thanks in advance
Hein
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I am new to the field of optimization and I need help in the following optimization problem. I have tried to solve it using normal coding to make sure that I got he correct results. However, the results I got are different and I am not sure my way of analysis is correct or not. This is a short description of the problem:
The objective function shown in the picture is used to find the optimal temperature of the insulating system that minimizes the total cost over a given horizon.
[This image provides the mathematical description of the objective function and the constraints] (https://i.stack.imgur.com/yidrO.png)
The data of the problems are as follow:
1-
Problem data:
A=1.07×10^8
h=1
T_ref=87.5
N=20
p1=0.001;
p2=0.0037;
This is the curve I want to obtain
2- Optimization variable:
u_t
3- Model type:
The model is a nonlinear cost function with non-linear constraints and it is solved using non-linear solver SNOPT.
4-The meaning of the symbols in the objective and constrained functions
The optimization is performed over a prediction horizon of N years.
T_ref is The reference temperature.
Represent the degree of polymerization in the kth year.
X_DP Represents the temperature of the insulating system in the kth year.
h is the time step (1 year) of the discrete-time model.
R is the ratio of the load loss at the rated load to the no-load loss.
E is the activation energy.
A is the pre-exponential constant.
beta is a linear coefficient representing the cost due to the decrement of the temperature.
I have developed the source code in MATLAB, this code is used to check if my analysis is correct or not.
I have tried to initialize the Ut value in its increasing or decreasing states so that I can have the curves similar to the original one. [This is the curve I obtained] (https://i.stack.imgur.com/KVv2q.png)
I have tried to simulate the problem using conventional coding without optimization and I got the figure shown above.
close all; clear all;
h=1;
N=20;
a=250;
R=8.314;
A=1.07*10^8;
E=111000;
Tref=87.5;
p1=0.0019;
p2=0.0037;
p3=0.0037;
Utt=[80,80.7894736842105,81.5789473684211,82.3684210526316,83.1578947368421,... % The value of Utt given here represent the temperature increament over a predictive horizon.
83.9473684210526,84.7368421052632,85.5263157894737,86.3157894736842,...
87.1052631578947,87.8947368421053,88.6842105263158,89.4736842105263,...
90.2631578947369,91.0526315789474,91.8421052631579,92.6315789473684,...
93.4210526315790,94.2105263157895,95];
Utt1 = [95,94.2105263157895,93.4210526315790,92.6315789473684,91.8421052631579,... % The value of Utt1 given here represent the temperature decreament over a predictive horizon.
91.0526315789474,90.2631578947369,89.4736842105263,88.6842105263158,...
87.8947368421053,87.1052631578947,86.3157894736842,85.5263157894737,...
84.7368421052632,83.9473684210526,83.1578947368421,82.3684210526316,...
81.5789473684211,80.7894736842105,80];
Ut1=zeros(1,N);
Ut2=zeros(1,N);
Xdp =zeros(N,N);
Xdp(1,1)=1000;
Xdp1 =zeros(N,N);
Xdp1(1,1)=1000;
for L=1:N-1
for k=1:N-1
%vt(k+L)=Ut(k-L+1);
Xdq(k+1,L) =(1/Xdp(k,L))+A*exp((-1*E)/(R*(Utt(k)+273)))*24*365*h;
Xdp(k+1,L)=1/(Xdq(k+1,L));
Xdp(k,L+1)=1/(Xdq(k+1,L));
Xdq1(k+1,L) =(1/Xdp1(k,L))+A*exp((-1*E)/(R*(Utt1(k)+273)))*24*365*h;
Xdp1(k+1,L)=1/(Xdq1(k+1,L));
Xdp1(k,L+1)=1/(Xdq1(k+1,L));
end
end
% MATLAB code
for j =1:N-1
Ut1(j)= -p1*(Utt(j)-Tref);
Ut2(j)= -p2*(Utt1(j)-Tref);
end
sum00=sum(Ut1);
sum01=sum(Ut2);
X1=1./Xdp(:,1);
Xf=1./Xdp(:,20);
Total= table(X1,Xf);
Tdiff =a*(Total.Xf-Total.X1);
X22=1./Xdp1(:,1);
X2f=1./Xdp1(:,20);
Total22= table(X22,X2f);
Tdiff22 =a*(Total22.X2f-Total22.X22);
obj=(sum00+(Tdiff));
ob1 = min(obj);
obj2=sum01+Tdiff22;
ob2 = min(obj2);
plot(Utt,obj,'-o');
hold on
plot(Utt1,obj)
The paper time2vector link (the relevant theory is in section 4) shows an approach to include a time embedding for features to improve model performance. I would like to give this a try. I found a implementation as keras layer which I changed a little bit. Basically it creates two matrices for one feature:
(1) linear = w * x + b
(2) periodic = sin(w * x + b)
Currently I choose this feature manually. Concerning the paper there are a few things i don't understand. The first thing is the term k as the number of sinusoids. The authors use up to 64 sinusoids. What does this mean? I have just 1 sinusoid at the moment, right? Secondly I'm about to put every feature I have through the sinus transformation for me dataset that would make 6 (sinusoids) periodic features. The authors use only one linear term. How should I choose the feature for the linear term? Unfortunately the code from the paper is not available anymore. Has anyone worked with time embeddings or even with this particularly approach?
For my limited understanding, the linear transformation of time is a fixed element of the produced embedding and the parameter K allows you to select how many different learned time representations you want to use in your model. So, the resulting embedding has a size of K+1 elements.
Currently, I'm dealing with forecasting problems. I have a reference that used linear function to represent the input and output data.
y = po + p1.x1 + p2.x2
Both of x1 and x2 are known input; y is output; p0, p1, and p2 are the coefficient. Then, he used all the training data and Least Square Estimation (LSE) method to find the optimal coefficient (p0, p1, p2) to build the model.
My question is if he already used the LSE algorithm, can I try to improve his method by using any optimization algorithm (PSO or GA for example) to try find better coefficient value?
You answered this yourself:
Blockquote Then, he used all the training data and Least Square Estimation (LSE) method to find the optimal coefficient (p0, p1, p2) to build the model.
Because a linear-model is quite easy to optimize, the LSE method obtained a global optimum (ignoring subtle rounding-errors and early-stopping/tolerance errors). Without changing the model, there is no gain in terms of using other coefficients, independent on the usage of meta-heuristics lika GA.
So you may modify the model, or add additional data (feature-engineering: e.g. product of two variables; kernel-methods).
One thing to try: Support-Vector machines. These are also convex and can be trained efficiently (with not too much data). They are also designed to work well with kernels. An additional advantage (compared with more complex models: e.g. non-convex): they are quite good regarding generalization which seems to be important here because you don't have much data (sounds like a very small dataset).
See also #ayhan's comment!
I have some data in a pandas dataframe (although pandas is not the point of this question). As an experiment I made column ZR as column Z divided by column R. As a first step using scikit learn I wanted to see if I could predict ZR from the other columns (which should be possible as I just made it from R and Z). My steps have been.
columns=['R','T', 'V', 'X', 'Z']
for c in columns:
results[c] = preprocessing.scale(results[c])
results['ZR'] = preprocessing.scale(results['ZR'])
labels = results["ZR"].values
features = results[columns].values
#print labels
#print features
regr = linear_model.LinearRegression()
regr.fit(features, labels)
print(regr.coef_)
print np.mean((regr.predict(features)-labels)**2)
This gives
[ 0.36472515 -0.79579885 -0.16316067 0.67995378 0.59256197]
0.458552051342
The preprocessing seems wrong as it destroys the Z/R relationship I think. What's the right way to preprocess in this situation?
Is there some way to get near 100% accuracy? Linear regression is the wrong tool as the relationship is not-linear.
The five features are highly correlated in my data. Is non-negative least squares implemented in scikit learn ? ( I can see it mentioned in the mailing list but not the docs.) My aim would be to get as many coefficients set to zero as possible.
You should easily be able to get a decent fit using random forest regression, without any preprocessing, since it is a nonlinear method:
model = RandomForestRegressor(n_estimators=10, max_features=2)
model.fit(features, labels)
You can play with the parameters to get better performance.
The solutions is not as easy and can be very influenced by your data.
If your variables R and Z are bounded (for ex 0<R<1 -3<Z<2) then you should be able to get a good estimation of the output variable using neural network.
Using neural network you should be able to estimate your output even without preprocessing the data and using all the variables as input.
(Of course here you will have to solve a minimization problem).
Sklearn do not implement neural network so you should use pybrain or fann.
If you want to preprocess the data in order to make the minimization problem easier you can try to extract the right features from the predictor matrix.
I do not think there are a lot of tools for non linear features selection. I would try to estimate the important variables from you dataset using in this order :
1-lasso
2- sparse PCA
3- decision tree (you can actually use them for features selection ) but I would avoid this as much as possible
If this is a toy problem I would sugges you to move towards something of more standard.
You can find a lot of examples on google.
I would like to perform feature analysis in WEKA. I have a data set of 8 features and 65 instances.
I would like to perform feature selection and optimization functionalities that are available for machine learning methods like SVM.
For example in Weka I would like to know how I can display which of the features contribute best to the classification result.
I think that WEKA provides a nice graphical user interface and allows a very detailed analysis of the influence of single features. But I dont know how to use it. Any help?
You have two options:
You can perform attribute selection using filters. For instance you can use the AttributeSelection tab (or filter) with the search method Ranker and the attribute evaluation metric InfoGainAttributeEval. This way you get a ranked list of the most predictive features according to its Information Gain score. I have done this many times with good results. Sometimes it helps even to increase the accuracy of SVMs, which are known not to need (too much) of feature selection. You can try with other search methods in order to find subgroups of coupled predictors, and with other metrics.
You can just look at the coefficients in the SVM output. For instance, in linear SVMs, the classifier is a polynomial like a1.f1 + a2.f2 + ... + an.fn + fn+1 > 0, being ai the attribute values for an instance, and fi the "weights" obtained in the SVM training algorithm. In consequence, those weights with values close to 0 represent attributes that do not count too much, thus being bad predictors; extreme weights (either positive or negative) represent good predictors.
Additionally, you can check the visualization options available for a particular classifier (e.g. J48 is a decision tree, the attribute used in the root test is for the best predictor). You can check the AttributeSelection tab visualization options as well.