I want to predict stock price.
Normally, people would feed the input as a sequence of stock prices.
Then they would feed the output as the same sequence but shifted to the left.
When testing, they would feed the output of the prediction into the next input timestep like this:
I have another idea, which is to fix the sequence length, for example 50 timesteps.
The input and output are exactly the same sequence.
When training, I replace last 3 elements of the input by zero to let the model know that I have no input for those timesteps.
When testing, I would feed the model a sequence of 50 elements. The last 3 are zeros. The predictions I care are the last 3 elements of the output.
Would this work or is there a flaw in this idea?
The main flaw of this idea is that it does not add anything to the model's learning, and it reduces its capacity, as you force your model to learn identity mapping for first 47 steps (50-3). Note, that providing 0 as inputs is equivalent of not providing input for an RNN, as zero input, after multiplying by a weight matrix is still zero, so the only source of information is bias and output from previous timestep - both are already there in the original formulation. Now second addon, where we have output for first 47 steps - there is nothing to be gained by learning the identity mapping, yet network will have to "pay the price" for it - it will need to use weights to encode this mapping in order not to be penalised.
So in short - yes, your idea will work, but it is nearly impossible to get better results this way as compared to the original approach (as you do not provide any new information, do not really modify learning dynamics, yet you limit capacity by requesting identity mapping to be learned per-step; especially that it is an extremely easy thing to learn, so gradient descent will discover this relation first, before even trying to "model the future").
Related
So I have been looking at XGBoost as a place to start with this, however I am not sure the best way to accomplish what I want.
My data is set up something like this
Where every value, whether it be input or output is numerical. The issue I'm facing is that I only have 3 input data points per several output data points.
I have seen that XGBoost has a multi-output regression method, however I am only really seeing it used to predict around 2 outputs per 1 input, whereas my data may have upwards of 50 output points needing to be predicted with only a handful of scalar input features.
I'd appreciate any ideas you may have.
For reference, I've been looking at mainly these two demos (they are the same idea just one is scikit and the other xgboost)
https://machinelearningmastery.com/multi-output-regression-models-with-python/
https://xgboost.readthedocs.io/en/stable/python/examples/multioutput_regression.html
Maybe this is a silly question but I didn't find much about it when I google it.
I have a dataset and I use it for regression but a normal regression with FFNN didn't worked so I thought why not try an LSTM since my data is time dependent I think because it was token from a vehicle while driving so the data is monotonic and maybe I can use LSTM in this Case to do a regression to predict a continuous value (if this doesn't make sense please tell me).
Now the first step is to prepare my data for using LSTM, since I ll predict the future I think my target(Ground truth or labels) should be shifted to the up, am I right?
So if I have a pandas dataframe where each row hold the features and the target(at the end of the row), I assume that the features should stay where they are and the target would be shifted it one step up so that the features in the first row will correspond to the target of the second row (am I wrong).
This way the LSTM will be able to predict the future value from those features.
I didn't find much about this in the internet so please can you provide me how can I do this with some Code?
I also know what I can use pandas.DataFrame.shift to shift a dataset but the last value will hold a NaN I think! how to deal with this? it would be great if you show me some examples or code.
We might need a bit more information regarding the data you are using. Also, I would suggest starting with a more simple recurrent neural network before you start going for LSTMs. The way these networks work is by you feeding the first bit of information, then the next bit of information, then the next bit etc. Let's say that when you feed the first bit of information in, it occurs at time t, then the second bit of information is fed at time t+1 ... etc. up until time t+n.
You can have the neural network output a value at each time step (so a value is outputted at time t, t+1... t+n after each respective input has been fed in). This is a many-to-many network. Or you can have the neural network output a value after all inputs have been provided (i.e. the value is outputted at time t+n). This is called a many-to-one network. What you need is dependednt on your use-case.
For example, say you were recording vehicle behaviour every 100ms and after 10 seconds (i.e. the 100th time step), you wanted to predict the likelihood that the driver was under the influence of alcohol. In this case, you would use a many-to-one network where you put in subsequent vehicle behaviour recordings at subsequent time steps (the first recording at time t, then the next recording at time t+1 etc.) and then the final timestep has the probability value outputted.
If you want a value outputted after every time step, you use a many-to-many design. It's also possible to output a value every k timesteps.
I'm beginning with Keras and TensorFlow.
I have an LSTM model learning on a dataset of stocks prices.
I don't want that my model learn to predict next steps like today. I want that my model learn on each step if it must buy, sell or do nothing and how much.
I think that I need to make a custom loss function, but I really don't know how to code my concept : buy, sell, nothing and how much based on a capital like 100 unit at beginning. The objective would be to have the hightest capital possible at the end.
I must to use an existant function and customise it like MSE ? If yes, how ?
I must to let my model learn the time series and after add a buy/sell layer(s) ? If yes, how ?
Other ?
I am pretty lost.
Thank's a lot for your help.
Sam
I would try categorical cross-entropy,
I mean you have three options: buy (0) , sell (1), and do nothing (2). You can encode it like this:
[1,0,0] < - means 'buy'
[0,1,0] < - means 'sell'
[0,0,1] < - means 'do nothing'
And don't forget to add softmax function in the end of you NN.
what I understand, we have stock prices dataset and at each point, we are required to predict the decision buy/sell/nothing.
For each point, we should decide a window size, which we believe impact the current point.
Use this window as time series input to LSTM layer. Using moving window, we can create multiple inputs. The corresponding output will be the decision, which can be taken to be encoded 3 bits.
For time point t, use time series (0..t-1) as input. and decision [0,0,1] or [0,1,0] or [1,0,0] as output. The model will learn to predict probabilities for each decision.
To compute loss, categorical cross entropy will be useful, as mentioned by Paddy.
Also, if you haven't looked into pre-processing data, detrending the data is useful in such cases. This link might be useful.
After training a RNN does it makes sense to save the final state so that it is then the initial state for testing?
I am using:
stacked_lstm = rnn.MultiRNNCell([rnn.BasicLSTMCell(n_hidden,state_is_tuple=True) for _ in range(number_of_layers)], state_is_tuple=True)
The state has a very specific meaning and purpose. This isn't a question of "advisable" or not, there's a right and wrong answer here, and it depends on your data.
Consider each timestep in your sequence of data. At the first time step your state should be initialized to all zeros. This value has a specific meaning, it tells the network that this is the beginning of your sequence.
At each time step the RNN is computing a new state. The MultiRNNCell implementation in tensorflow is hiding this from you, but internally in that function a new hidden state is computed at each time step and passed forward.
The value of state at the 2nd time step is the output of the state at the 1st time step, and so on and so forth.
So the answer to your question is yes only if the next batch is continuing in time from the previous batch. Let me explain this with a couple of examples where you do, and don't perform this operation respectively.
Example 1: let's say you are training a character RNN, a common tutorial example where your input is each character in the works of Shakespear. There are millions of characters in this sequence. You can't train on a sequence that long. So you break your sequence into segments of 100 (if you don't know why to do otherwise limit your sequences to roughly 100 time steps). In this example, each training step is a sequence of 100 characters, and is a continuation of the last 100 characters. So you must carry the state forward to the next training step.
Example 2: where this isn't use would be in training an RNN to recognize MNIST handwritten digits. In this case you split your image into 28 rows of 28 pixels and each training has only 28 time steps, one per row in the image. In this case each training iteration starts at the beginning of the sequence for that image and trains fully until the end of the sequence for that image. You would not carry the hidden state forward in this case, your hidden state must start with zero's to tell the system that this is the beginning of a new image sequence, not the continuation of the last image you trained on.
I hope those two examples illustrate the important difference there. Know that if you have sequence lengths that are very long (say over ~100 timesteps) you need to break them up and think through the process of carrying forward the state appropriately. You can't effectively train on infinitely long sequence lengths. If your sequence lengths are under this rough threshold then you won't worry about this detail and always initialize your state to zero.
Also know that even though you only train on say 100 timesteps at a time the RNN can still be expected to learn patterns that operate over longer sequences, Karpathy's fabulous paper/blog on "The unreasonable effectiveness of RNNs" demonstrates this beautifully. Those character level RNNs can keep track of important details like whether a quote is open or not over many hundreds of characters, far more than were ever trained on in one batch, specifically because the hidden state was carried forward in the appropriate manner.
I am modeling a perceptual process in tensorflow. In the setup I am interested in, the modeled agent is playing a resource game: it has to choose 1 out of n resouces, by relying only on the label that a classifier gives to the resource. Each resource is an ordered pair of two reals. The classifier only sees the first real, but payoffs depend on the second. There is a function taking first to second.
Anyway, ideally I'd like to train the classifier in the following way:
In each run, the classifier give labels to n resources.
The agent then gets the payoff of the resource corresponding to the highest label in some predetermined ranking (say, A > B > C > D), and randomly in case of draw.
The loss is taken to be the normalized absolute difference between the payoff thus obtained and the maximum payoff in the set of resources. I.e., (Payoff_max - Payoff) / Payoff_max
For this to work, one needs to run inference n times, once for each resource, before calculating the loss. Is there a way to do this in tensorflow? If I am tackling the problem in the wrong way feel free to say so, too.
I don't have much knowledge in ML aspects of this, but from programming point of view, I can see doing it in two ways. One is by copying your model n times. All the copies can share the same variables. The output of all of these copies would go into some function that determines the the highest label. As long as this function is differentiable, variables are shared, and n is not too large, it should work. You would need to feed all n inputs together. Note that, backprop will run through each copy and update your weights n times. This is generally not a problem, but if it is, I heart about some fancy tricks one can do by using partial_run.
Another way is to use tf.while_loop. It is pretty clever - it stores activations from each run of the loop and can do backprop through them. The only tricky part should be to accumulate the inference results before feeding them to your loss. Take a look at TensorArray for this. This question can be helpful: Using TensorArrays in the context of a while_loop to accumulate values