Is it possible to calculate standard errors for Differential Evolution?
From the Wikipedia entry:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Differential_evolution
It's not derivative based (indeed that is one of its strengths) but how then so you calculate the standard errors?
I would have thought some kind of bootstrapping strategy might have been applicable but can't seem to find any sources than apply bootstrapping to DE?
Baz
Concerning the standard errors, differential evolution is just like any other evolutionary algorithm.
Using a bootstrapping strategy seems a good idea: the usual formulas assume a normal (Gaussian) distribution for the underlying data. That's almost never true for evolutionary computation (exponential distributions being far more common, probably followed by bimodal distributions).
The simplest bootstrap method involves taking the original data set of N numbers and sampling from it to form a new sample (a resample) that is also of size N. The resample is taken from the original using sampling with replacement. This process is repeated a large number of times (typically 1000 or 10000 times) and for each of these bootstrap samples we compute its mean / median (each of these are called bootstrap estimates).
The standard deviation (SD) of the means is the bootstrapped standard error (SE) of the mean and the SD of the medians is the bootstrapped SE of the median (the 2.5th and 97.5th centiles of the means are the bootstrapped 95% confidence limits for the mean).
Warnings:
the word population is used with different meanings in different contexts (bootstrapping vs evolutionary algorithm)
in any GA or GP, the average of the population tells you almost nothing of interest. Use the mean/median of the best-of-run
the average of a set that is not normally distributed produces a value that behaves non-intuitively. Especially if the probability distribution is skewed: large values in "tail" can dominate and average tends to reflect the typical value of the "worst" data not the typical value of the data in general. In this case it's better the median
Some interesting links are:
A short guide to using statistics in Evolutionary Computation
An Introduction to Statistics for EC Experimental Analysis
Related
The sjmisc package has a function sjmisc::merge_imputations()
This function merges multiple imputed data frames from mice::mids()-objects into a single data frame by computing the mean or selecting the most likely imputed value.
I think this is what Stef van Buuren cautions against in 5.1.2 Not recommended workflow: Averaging the data ?
the procedure ignores the between-imputation variability, and hence shares all the drawbacks of single imputation
Instead, they advocate for mice::with() and mice::pool().
So when might one use sjmisc::merge_imputations() ?
If:
The researcher either only cares about means, not about correlations or other more complicated relationships between variables. Or, is willing to assume that the imputation models were "true" models.
The researcher only cares about point estimates, and is less concerned about the uncertainty in those estimates (variance, standard errors, confidence intervals, hypothesis tests, coefficients of variation).
There is only a small amount of missing data.
Then averaging the imputed values can be a reasonable fix. Averaging the imputed values is basically a version of "stochastic regression imputation". Although note that as the number of imputations increases, averaging the imputed values converges to simple regression imputation. It's still wrong, but it may be a practical method. The sjmisc package documentation quotes Burns et al (2011). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2010.10.011 From that article:
There were practical benefits in providing DYNOPTA investigators an averaged imputation score as it precludes the necessity for investigators to run MICE for different projects using the MMSE, the need to obtain software capable of combining and analyzing multiple imputed datasets, and many investigators are unfamiliar with MI analysis techniques.
Compare also van Buuren 1.3.5
If you have the ability to use proper pooling methods I would recommend using those instead.
I was wondering if, given a min cost flow problem and an integer n, there is an efficient algorithm/package or mathematical method, to obtain the set of the
n-best basic solutions of the min cost flow problem (instead of just the best).
Not so easy. There were some special LP solvers that could do that (see: Ralph E. Steuer, Multiple Criteria Optimization: Theory, Computation, and Application, Wiley, 1986), but currently available LP solvers can't.
There is a way to encode a basis using binary variables:
b[i] = 1 if variable x[i] = basic
0 nonbasic
Using this, we can use "no good cuts" or "solution pool" technology to get the k best bases. See: https://yetanothermathprogrammingconsultant.blogspot.com/2016/01/finding-all-optimal-lp-solutions.html. Note that not all solution-pools can do the k-best. (Cplex can't, Gurobi can.) The "no-good" cuts work with any mip solver.
Update: a more recent reference is Craig A. Piercy, Ralph E. Steuer,
Reducing wall-clock time for the computation of all efficient extreme points in multiple objective linear programming, European Journal of Operational Research, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.02.042
Minimally, I would like to know how to achieve what is stated in the title. Specifically, signal.lfilter seems like the only implementation of a difference equation filter in scipy, but it is 1D, as shown in the docs. I would like to know how to implement a 2D version as described by this difference equation. If that's as simple as "bro, use this function," please let me know, pardon my naiveté, and feel free to disregard the rest of the post.
I am new to DSP and acknowledging there might be a different approach to answering my question so I will explain the broader goal and give context for the question in the hopes someone knows how do want I want with Scipy, or perhaps a better way than what I explicitly asked for.
To get straight into it, broadly speaking I am using vectorized computation methods (Numpy/Scipy) to implement a Monte Carlo simulation to improve upon a naive for loop. I have successfully abstracted most of my operations to array computation / linear algebra, but a few specific ones (recursive computations) have eluded my intuition and I continually end up in the digital signal processing world when I go looking for how this type of thing has been done by others (that or machine learning but those "frameworks" are much opinionated). The reason most of my google searches end up on scipy.signal or scipy.ndimage library references is clear to me at this point, and subsequent to accepting the "signal" representation of my data, I have spent a considerable amount of time (about as much as reasonable for a field that is not my own) ramping up the learning curve to try and figure out what I need from these libraries.
My simulation entails updating a vector of data representing the state of a system each period for n periods, and then repeating that whole process a "Monte Carlo" amount of times. The updates in each of n periods are inherently recursive as the next depends on the state of the prior. It can be characterized as a difference equation as linked above. Additionally this vector is theoretically indexed on an grid of points with uneven stepsize. Here is an example vector y and its theoretical grid t:
y = np.r_[0.0024, 0.004, 0.0058, 0.0083, 0.0099, 0.0133, 0.0164]
t = np.r_[0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, 5, 10, 20]
I need to iteratively perform numerous operations to y for each of n "updates." Specifically, I am computing the curvature along the curve y(t) using finite difference approximations and using the result at each point to adjust the corresponding y(t) prior to the next update. In a loop this amounts to inplace variable reassignment with the desired update in each iteration.
y += some_function(y)
Not only does this seem inefficient, but vectorizing things seems intuitive given y is a vector to begin with. Furthermore I am interested in preserving each "updated" y(t) along the n updates, which would require a data structure of dimensions len(y) x n. At this point, why not perform the updates inplace in the array? This is wherein lies the question. Many of the update operations I have succesfully vectorized the "Numpy way" (such as adding random variates to each point), but some appear overly complex in the array world.
Specifically, as mentioned above the one involving computing curvature at each element using its neighbouring two elements, and then imediately using that result to update the next row of the array before performing its own curvature "update." I was able to implement a non-recursive version (each row fails to consider its "updated self" from the prior row) of the curvature operation using ndimage generic_filter. Given the uneven grid, I have unique coefficients (kernel weights) for each triplet in the kernel footprint (instead of always using [1,-2,1] for y'' if I had a uniform grid). This last part has already forced me to use a spatial filter from ndimage rather than a 1d convolution. I'll point out, something conceptually similar was discussed in this math.exchange post, and it seems to me only the third response saliently addressed the difference between mathematical notion of "convolution" which should be associative from general spatial filtering kernels that would require two sequential filtering operations or a cleverly merged kernel.
In any case this does not seem to actually address my concern as it is not about 2D recursion filtering but rather having a backwards looking kernel footprint. Additionally, I think I've concluded it is not applicable in that this only allows for "recursion" (backward looking kernel footprints in the spatial filtering world) in a manner directly proportional to the size of the recursion. Meaning if I wanted to filter each of n rows incorporating calculations on all prior rows, it would require a convolution kernel far too big (for my n anyways). If I'm understanding all this correctly, a recursive linear filter is algorithmically more efficient in that it returns (for use in computation) the result of itself applied over the previous n samples (up to a level where the stability of the algorithm is affected) using another companion vector (z). In my case, I would only need to look back one step at output signal y[n-1] to compute y[n] from curvature at x[n] as the rest works itself out like a cumsum. signal.lfilter works for this, but I can't used that to compute curvature, as that requires a kernel footprint that can "see" at least its left and right neighbors (pixels), which is how I ended up using generic_filter.
It seems to me I should be able to do both simultaneously with one filter namely spatial and recursive filtering; or somehow I've missed the maths of how this could be mathematically simplified/combined (convolution of multiples kernels?).
It seems like this should be a common problem, but perhaps it is rarely relevant to do both at once in signal processing and image filtering. Perhaps this is why you don't use signals libraries solely to implement a fast monte carlo simulation; though it seems less esoteric than using a tensor math library to implement a recursive neural network scan ... which I'm attempting to do right now.
EDIT: For those familiar with the theoretical side of DSP, I know that what I am describing, the process of designing a recursive filters with arbitrary impulse responses, is achieved by employing a mathematical technique called the z-transform which I understand is generally used for two things:
converting between the recursion coefficients and the frequency response
combining cascaded and parallel stages into a single filter
Both are exactly what I am trying to accomplish.
Also, reworded title away from FIR / IIR because those imply specific definitions of "recursion" and may be confusing / misnomer.
I want to run some Machine Learning clustering algorithms on some big data.
The problem is that I'm having troubles to find interesting data for this purpose on the web.Also, usually this data might be inconvenient to use because the format won't fit for me.
I need a txt file which each line represents a mathematical vector, each element seperated by space, for example:
1 2.2 3.1
1.12 0.13 4.46
1 2 54.44
Therefore, I decided to first run those algorithms on some synthetic data which I'll create by my self. How can I do this in a smart way with numpy?
In smart way, I mean that it won't be generated uniformly, because it's a little bit boring. How can I generate some interesting clusters?
I want to have 5GB / 10GB of data at the moment.
You need to define what you mean by "clusters", but I think what you are asking for is several random-parameter normal distributions combined together, for each of your coordinate values.
From http://docs.scipy.org/doc/numpy-1.10.0/reference/generated/numpy.random.randn.html#numpy.random.randn:
For random samples from N(\mu, \sigma^2), use:
sigma * np.random.randn(...) + mu
And use <range> * np.random.rand(<howmany>) for each of sigma and mu.
There is no one good answer for such question. What is interesting? For clustering, unfortunately, there is no such thing as an interesting or even well posed problem. Clustering as such has no well defineid evaluation, consequently each method is equally good/bad, as long as it has well defined internal objective. So k-means will always be good one to minimize inter-cluster euclidean distance and will struggle with sparse data, non-convex, imbalanced clusters. DBScan will always be the best in greedy density based sense and will strugle with diverse density clusters. GMM will be always great fitting on gaussian mixtures, and will strugle with clusters which are not gaussians (for example lines, squares etc.).
From the question one could deduce that you are at the very begining of work with clustering and so need "just anything more complex than uniform", so I suggest you take a look at datasets generators, in particular accesible in scikit-learn (python) http://scikit-learn.org/stable/datasets/ or in clusterSim (R) http://www.inside-r.org/packages/cran/clusterSim/docs/cluster.Gen or clusterGeneration (R) https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/clusterGeneration/clusterGeneration.pdf
I searched the site but did not find exactly what I was looking for... I wanted to generate a discrete random number from normal distribution.
For example, if I have a range from a minimum of 4 and a maximum of 10 and an average of 7. What code or function call ( Objective C preferred ) would I need to return a number in that range. Naturally, due to normal distribution more numbers returned would center round the average of 7.
As a second example, can the bell curve/distribution be skewed toward one end of the other? Lets say I need to generate a random number with a range of minimum of 4 and maximum of 10, and I want the majority of the numbers returned to center around the number 8 with a natural fall of based on a skewed bell curve.
Any help is greatly appreciated....
Anthony
What do you need this for? Can you do it the craps player's way?
Generate two random integers in the range of 2 to 5 (inclusive, of course) and add them together. Or flip a coin (0,1) six times and add 4 to the result.
Summing multiple dice produces a normal distribution (a "bell curve"), while eliminating high or low throws can be used to skew the distribution in various ways.
The key is you are going for discrete numbers (and I hope you mean integers by that). Multiple dice throws famously generate a normal distribution. In fact, I think that's how we were first introduced to the Gaussian curve in school.
Of course the more throws, the more closely you approximate the bell curve. Rolling a single die gives a flat line. Rolling two dice just creates a ramp up and down that isn't terribly close to a bell. Six coin flips gets you closer.
So consider this...
If I understand your question correctly, you only have seven possible outcomes--the integers (4,5,6,7,8,9,10). You can set up an array of seven probabilities to approximate any distribution you like.
Many frameworks and libraries have this built-in.
Also, just like TokenMacGuy said a normal distribution isn't characterized by the interval it's defined on, but rather by two parameters: Mean μ and standard deviation σ. With both these parameters you can confine a certain quantile of the distribution to a certain interval, so that 95 % of all points fall in that interval. But resticting it completely to any interval other than (−∞, ∞) is impossible.
There are several methods to generate normal-distributed values from uniform random values (which is what most random or pseudorandom number generators are generating:
The Box-Muller transform is probably the easiest although not exactly fast to compute. Depending on the number of numbers you need, it should be sufficient, though and definitely very easy to write.
Another option is Marsaglia's Polar method which is usually faster1.
A third method is the Ziggurat algorithm which is considerably faster to compute but much more complex to program. In applications that really use a lot of random numbers it may be the best choice, though.
As a general advice, though: Don't write it yourself if you have access to a library that generates normal-distributed random numbers for you already.
For skewing your distribution I'd just use a regular normal distribution, choosing μ and σ appropriately for one side of your curve and then determine on which side of your wanted mean a point fell, stretching it appropriately to fit your desired distribution.
For generating only integers I'd suggest you just round towards the nearest integer when the random number happens to fall within your desired interval and reject it if it doesn't (drawing a new random number then). This way you won't artificially skew the distribution (such as you would if you were clamping the values at 4 or 10, respectively).
1 In testing with deliberately bad random number generators (yes, worse than RANDU) I've noticed that the polar method results in an endless loop, rejecting every sample. Won't happen with random numbers that fulfill the usual statistic expectations to them, though.
Yes, there are sophisticated mathematical solutions, but for "simple but practical" I'd go with Nosredna's comment. For a simple Java solution:
Random random=new Random();
public int bell7()
{
int n=4;
for (int x=0;x<6;++x)
n+=random.nextInt(2);
return n;
}
If you're not a Java person, Random.nextInt(n) returns a random integer between 0 and n-1. I think the rest should be similar to what you'd see in any programming language.
If the range was large, then instead of nextInt(2)'s I'd use a bigger number in there so there would be fewer iterations through the loop, depending on frequency of call and performance requirements.
Dan Dyer and Jay are exactly right. What you really want is a binomial distribution, not a normal distribution. The shape of a binomial distribution looks a lot like a normal distribution, but it is discrete and bounded whereas a normal distribution is continuous and unbounded.
Jay's code generates a binomial distribution with 6 trials and a 50% probability of success on each trial. If you want to "skew" your distribution, simply change the line that decides whether to add 1 to n so that the probability is something other than 50%.
The normal distribution is not described by its endpoints. Normally it's described by it's mean (which you have given to be 7) and its standard deviation. An important feature of this is that it is possible to get a value far outside the expected range from this distribution, although that will be vanishingly rare, the further you get from the mean.
The usual means for getting a value from a distribution is to generate a random value from a uniform distribution, which is quite easily done with, for example, rand(), and then use that as an argument to a cumulative distribution function, which maps probabilities to upper bounds. For the standard distribution, this function is
F(x) = 0.5 - 0.5*erf( (x-μ)/(σ * sqrt(2.0)))
where erf() is the error function which may be described by a taylor series:
erf(z) = 2.0/sqrt(2.0) * Σ∞n=0 ((-1)nz2n + 1)/(n!(2n + 1))
I'll leave it as an excercise to translate this into C.
If you prefer not to engage in the exercise, you might consider using the Gnu Scientific Library, which among many other features, has a technique to generate random numbers in one of many common distributions, of which the Gaussian Distribution (hint) is one.
Obviously, all of these functions return floating point values. You will have to use some rounding strategy to convert to a discrete value. A useful (but naive) approach is to simply downcast to integer.