and thanks for reading my thread.
I have read some of the previous posts on formatting/normalising input data for a Neural Network, but cannot find something that addresses my queries specifically. I apologise for the long post.
I am attempting to build a radial basis function network for analysing horse racing data. I realise that this has been done before, but the data that I have is "special" and I have a keen interest in racing/sportsbetting/programming so would like to give it a shot!
Whilst I think I understand the principles for the RBFN itself, I am having some trouble understanding the normalisation/formatting/scaling of the input data so that it is presented in a "sensible manner" for the network, and I am not sure how I should formulate the output target values.
For example, in my data I look at the "Class change", which compares the class of race that the horse is running in now compared to the race before, and can have a value between -5 and +5. I expect that I need to rescale these to between -1 and +1 (right?!), but I have noticed that many more runners have a class change of 1, 0 or -1 than any other value, so I am worried about "over-representation". It is not possible to gather more data for the higher/lower class changes because thats just 'the way the data comes'. Would it be best to use the data as-is after scaling, or should I trim extreme values, or something else?
Similarly, there are "continuous" inputs - like the "Days Since Last Run". It can have a value between 1 and about 1000, but values in the range of 10-40 vastly dominate. I was going to scale these values to be between 0 and 1, but even if I trim the most extreme values before scaling, I am still going to have a huge representation of a certain range - is this going to cause me an issue? How are problems like this usually dealt with?
Finally, I am having trouble understanding how to present the "target" values for training to the network. My existing results data has the "win/lose" (0 or 1?) and the odds at which the runner won or lost. If I just use the "win/lose", it treats all wins and loses the same when really they're not - I would be quite happy with a network that ignored all the small winners but was highly profitable from picking 10-1 shots. Similarly, a network could be forgiven for "losing" on a 20-1 shot but losing a bet at 2/5 would be a bad loss. I considered making the results (+1 * odds) for a winner and (-1 / odds) for a loser to capture the issue above, but this will mean that my results are not a continuous function as there will be a "discontinuity" between short price winners and short price losers.
Should I have two outputs to cover this - one for bet/no bet, and another for "stake"?
I am sorry for the flood of questions and the long post, but this would really help me set off on the right track.
Thank you for any help anyone can offer me!
Kind regards,
Paul
The documentation that came with your RBFN is a good starting point to answer some of these questions.
Trimming data aka "clamping" or "winsorizing" is something I use for similar data. For example "days since last run" for a horse could be anything from just one day to several years but tends to centre in the region of 20 to 30 days. Some experts use a figure of say 63 days to indicate a "spell" so you could have an indicator variable like "> 63 =1 else 0" for example. One clue is to look at outliers say the upper or lower 5% of any variable and clamp these.
If you use odds/dividends anywhere make sure you use the probabilities ie 1/(odds+1) and a useful idea is to normalize these to 100%.
The odds or parimutual prices tend to swamp other predictors so one technique is to develop separate models, one for the market variables (the market model) and another for the non-market variables (often called the "fundamental" model).
Related
My data has a lot of missing values and I have to predict those values. One way is to take the average of those values. But I want to hear an other perspective on it. How experienced data scientist solve such kind of issue?
Are your missing values categorical or continuous?
One way is to remove the samples entirely, however this may lead to a sampling bias, since the missing values could have been the result of some causal effect, that is the missing values are not missing completely at random.
If your data has enough dimensionality, you can treat your missing values as the output and try to apply a predicting model and hope that it can faithfully estimate the missing values, given the explanatory variables you already have.
Picking the most frequent value, the median, or averaging as you point out could also be an option, however be careful with outliers when averaging as these can have a tremendous effect on the mean.
It depends on nature of variables, it may be some statistics like mean or median. Another practice is assign to missing variables some value different from others for example 0, -1 or something like this.
The hardest approach is to impute the dataset and not deviate too far from the truth. A test to validate how well you have done this is the following. If the other parameters provide enough evidenced insight to impute with a level of precision for missing data....it should be able to do it with existing data.
So if 60 percent of the column is missing, take the row observations where this column is PRESENT.
Next, randomly choose to remove 60% of this subsetted data. Now run imputation methods of your choosing.
Compare the imputed dataset to the real data set for similarity. Decide if they are close enough for you to then run this against the full data set. At least this approach will give you a leg to stand on if you need to defend yourself.
Fight the Good Fight.
I'm trying to run the hlda algorytmm and producing a descriptive hierarchy of the input documents. The problem is I'm running diverse parameters configs and trying to understand how it works in an "empirical way", because I can not match the ones that are being used in the original papers (I understand it's a different team). E.g. alpha in Mallet seems to be eta in the paper, but I'm not very sure. Besides, I can not know the boundaries for each of them. I mean, the range of possible values for each parameter.
In the source code, there is some help:
double alpha; // smoothing on topic distributions
double gamma; // "imaginary" customers at the next
double eta; // smoothing on word distributions.
First, I used the default values: alpha=10.0; gamma=1.0; eta = 0.1;
Then, I tryed running the algorythm by changing the values and interpret the results, but I can't understand the meaning of them. E.g. I think changing gamma (in Mallet) has an effect on the customers decition: to start a new node in the tree or to be placed in an existing one. So, if I set gamma = 0.5, less nodes should be produced, because 0.5 is half the probability of the default one, right? But the results with gamma=1 give me 87 nodes, and with gamma=0.5, it returns 98! And then, I'm asking me something new: is that a probability? I was trying to find the range of possible values in these two papers, but I didn't find them:
Hierarchical Topic Models andthe Nested Chinese Restaurant Process
The Nested Chinese Restaurant Process and BayesianNonparametric Inference of Topic Hierarchies
I know I could be missing something, because I don't have the a good background on this, but that's why I'm asking here, maybe someone already had this problem and can help me understanding those limits.
Thanks in advance!
It may be helpful to run multiple times with each hyperparameter setting. I suspect that gamma does not have a big influence on the final number of topics, and that what you are seeing could just be typical variability in the sampling process.
In my experience the parameter that has by far the strongest influence on the number of topics is actually eta, the topic-word smoothing.
Question after BIG edition :
I need to built a ranking using genetic algorithm, I have data like this :
P(a>b)=0.9
P(b>c)=0.7
P(c>d)=0.8
P(b>d)=0.3
now, lets interpret a,b,c,d as names of football teams, and P(x>y) is probability that x wins with y. We want to build ranking of teams, we lack some observations P(a>d),P(a>c) are missing due to lack of matches between a vs d and a vs c.
Goal is to find ordering of team names, which the best describes current situation in that four team league.
If we have only 4 teams than solution is straightforward, first we compute probabilities for all 4!=24 orderings of four teams, while ignoring missing values we have :
P(abcd)=P(a>b)P(b>c)P(c>d)P(b>d)
P(abdc)=P(a>b)P(b>c)(1-P(c>d))P(b>d)
...
P(dcba)=(1-P(a>b))(1-P(b>c))(1-P(c>d))(1-P(b>d))
and we choose the ranking with highest probability. I don't want to use any other fitness function.
My question :
As numbers of permutations of n elements is n! calculation of probabilities for all
orderings is impossible for large n (my n is about 40). I want to use genetic algorithm for that problem.
Mutation operator is simple switching of places of two (or more) elements of ranking.
But how to make crossover of two orderings ?
Could P(abcd) be interpreted as cost function of path 'abcd' in assymetric TSP problem but cost of travelling from x to y is different than cost of travelling from y to x, P(x>y)=1-P(y<x) ? There are so many crossover operators for TSP problem, but I think I have to design my own crossover operator, because my problem is slightly different from TSP. Do you have any ideas for solution or frame for conceptual analysis ?
The easiest way, on conceptual and implementation level, is to use crossover operator which make exchange of suborderings between two solutions :
CrossOver(ABcD,AcDB) = AcBD
for random subset of elements (in this case 'a,b,d' in capital letters) we copy and paste first subordering - sequence of elements 'a,b,d' to second ordering.
Edition : asymetric TSP could be turned into symmetric TSP, but with forbidden suborderings, which make GA approach unsuitable.
It's definitely an interesting problem, and it seems most of the answers and comments have focused on the semantic aspects of the problem (i.e., the meaning of the fitness function, etc.).
I'll chip in some information about the syntactic elements -- how do you do crossover and/or mutation in ways that make sense. Obviously, as you noted with the parallel to the TSP, you have a permutation problem. So if you want to use a GA, the natural representation of candidate solutions is simply an ordered list of your points, careful to avoid repitition -- that is, a permutation.
TSP is one such permutation problem, and there are a number of crossover operators (e.g., Edge Assembly Crossover) that you can take from TSP algorithms and use directly. However, I think you'll have problems with that approach. Basically, the problem is this: in TSP, the important quality of solutions is adjacency. That is, abcd has the same fitness as cdab, because it's the same tour, just starting and ending at a different city. In your example, absolute position is much more important that this notion of relative position. abcd means in a sense that a is the best point -- it's important that it came first in the list.
The key thing you have to do to get an effective crossover operator is to account for what the properties are in the parents that make them good, and try to extract and combine exactly those properties. Nick Radcliffe called this "respectful recombination" (note that paper is quite old, and the theory is now understood a bit differently, but the principle is sound). Taking a TSP-designed operator and applying it to your problem will end up producing offspring that try to conserve irrelevant information from the parents.
You ideally need an operator that attempts to preserve absolute position in the string. The best one I know of offhand is known as Cycle Crossover (CX). I'm missing a good reference off the top of my head, but I can point you to some code where I implemented it as part of my graduate work. The basic idea of CX is fairly complicated to describe, and much easier to see in action. Take the following two points:
abcdefgh
cfhgedba
Pick a starting point in parent 1 at random. For simplicity, I'll just start at position 0 with the "a".
Now drop straight down into parent 2, and observe the value there (in this case, "c").
Now search for "c" in parent 1. We find it at position 2.
Now drop straight down again, and observe the "h" in parent 2, position 2.
Again, search for this "h" in parent 1, found at position 7.
Drop straight down and observe the "a" in parent 2.
At this point note that if we search for "a" in parent one, we reach a position where we've already been. Continuing past that will just cycle. In fact, we call the sequence of positions we visited (0, 2, 7) a "cycle". Note that we can simply exchange the values at these positions between the parents as a group and both parents will retain the permutation property, because we have the same three values at each position in the cycle for both parents, just in different orders.
Make the swap of the positions included in the cycle.
Note that this is only one cycle. You then repeat this process starting from a new (unvisited) position each time until all positions have been included in a cycle. After the one iteration described in the above steps, you get the following strings (where an "X" denotes a position in the cycle where the values were swapped between the parents.
cbhdefga
afcgedbh
X X X
Just keep finding and swapping cycles until you're done.
The code I linked from my github account is going to be tightly bound to my own metaheuristics framework, but I think it's a reasonably easy task to pull the basic algorithm out from the code and adapt it for your own system.
Note that you can potentially gain quite a lot from doing something more customized to your particular domain. I think something like CX will make a better black box algorithm than something based on a TSP operator, but black boxes are usually a last resort. Other people's suggestions might lead you to a better overall algorithm.
I've worked on a somewhat similar ranking problem and followed a technique similar to what I describe below. Does this work for you:
Assume the unknown value of an object diverges from your estimate via some distribution, say, the normal distribution. Interpret your ranking statements such as a > b, 0.9 as the statement "The value a lies at the 90% percentile of the distribution centered on b".
For every statement:
def realArrival = calculate a's location on a distribution centered on b
def arrivalGap = | realArrival - expectedArrival |
def fitness = Σ arrivalGap
Fitness function is MIN(fitness)
FWIW, my problem was actually a bin-packing problem, where the equivalent of your "rank" statements were user-provided rankings (1, 2, 3, etc.). So not quite TSP, but NP-Hard. OTOH, bin-packing has a pseudo-polynomial solution proportional to accepted error, which is what I eventually used. I'm not quite sure that would work with your probabilistic ranking statements.
What an interesting problem! If I understand it, what you're really asking is:
"Given a weighted, directed graph, with each edge-weight in the graph representing the probability that the arc is drawn in the correct direction, return the complete sequence of nodes with maximum probability of being a topological sort of the graph."
So if your graph has N edges, there are 2^N graphs of varying likelihood, with some orderings appearing in more than one graph.
I don't know if this will help (very brief Google searches did not enlighten me, but maybe you'll have more success with more perseverance) but my thoughts are that looking for "topological sort" in conjunction with any of "probabilistic", "random", "noise," or "error" (because the edge weights can be considered as a reliability factor) might be helpful.
I strongly question your assertion, in your example, that P(a>c) is not needed, though. You know your application space best, but it seems to me that specifying P(a>c) = 0.99 will give a different fitness for f(abc) than specifying P(a>c) = 0.01.
You might want to throw in "Bayesian" as well, since you might be able to start to infer values for (in your example) P(a>c) given your conditions and hypothetical solutions. The problem is, "topological sort" and "bayesian" is going to give you a whole bunch of hits related to markov chains and markov decision problems, which may or may not be helpful.
Ok, I'm just curious what the formula would be for calculating an expected income over the next X weeks/months/etc, if the only data I have in mySQL DB is all past transactions (dates of transactions, amounts, etc)
I am thinking taking some averages and whatnot, but I can't think of a specific formula (there must be something along those lines) to take say average rise of income over time (weekly/monthly) and then apply it to a select future period and display it weekly/monthly/etc?
Any suggestions?
use AVG() on the income in the past devide it to proper weekly/monthly amounts if neccessary.
see http://dev.mysql.com/doc/refman/5.1/en/group-by-functions.html#function_avg for more info on AVG()
Linear regression + simple integration is probably sufficient for your needs. I leave sorting out exact implementation for your DB up to you, but that follow that link to the "Estimation Methods" section, and probably use Ordinary Least Squares.
Alternatively, you can always slurp your data into something like R where the details are already implemented.
EDIT:
For more detail: you're trying to model INCOME = BASE + SCALING*T where we are assuming that a linear model is "good" (it's probably not great, but it's probably good enough on a short time scale). For two value linear regression, you're pretty much just taking averages; follow that link to "Fitting the Regression Line" and you'll see which things you need to average (y = INCOME and x = T). There are some tricks you can play to simplify the calculation for the computer if you can enforce some other conditions (e.g., having equally spaced time periods + no missing data), but you'll need to math a bit more yourself first if you want to do that (and you'll be less flexible in the face of changing db assumptions).
I found this on an "interview questions" site and have been pondering it for a couple of days. I will keep churning, but am interested what you guys think
"10 Gbytes of 32-bit numbers on a magnetic tape, all there from 0 to 10G in random order. You have 64 32 bit words of memory available: design an algorithm to check that each number from 0 to 10G occurs once and only once on the tape, with minimum passes of the tape by a read head connected to your algorithm."
32-bit numbers can take 4G = 2^32 different values. There are 2.5*2^32 numbers on tape total. So after 2^32 count one of numbers will repeat 100%. If there were <= 2^32 numbers on tape then it was possible that there are two different cases – when all numbers are different or when at least one repeats.
It's a trick question, as Michael Anderson and I have figured out. You can't store 10G 32b numbers on a 10G tape. The interviewer (a) is messing with you and (b) is trying to find out how much you think about a problem before you start solving it.
The utterly naive algorithm, which takes as many passes as there are numbers to check, would be to walk through and verify that the lowest number is there. Then do it again checking that the next lowest is there. And so on.
This requires one word of storage to keep track of where you are - you could cut down the number of passes by a factor of 64 by using all 64 words to keep track of where you're up to in several different locations in the search space - checking all of your current ones on each pass. Still O(n) passes, of course.
You could probably cut it down even more by using portions of the words - given that your search space for each segment is smaller, you won't need to keep track of the full 32-bit range.
Perform an in-place mergesort or quicksort, using tape for storage? Then iterate through the numbers in sequence, tracking to see that each number = previous+1.
Requires cleverly implemented sort, and is fairly slow, but achieves the goal I believe.
Edit: oh bugger, it's never specified you can write.
Here's a second approach: scan through trying to build up to 30-ish ranges of contiginous numbers. IE 1,2,3,4,5 would be one range, 8,9,10,11,12 would be another, etc. If ranges overlap with existing, then they are merged. I think you only need to make a limited number of passes to either get the complete range or prove there are gaps... much less than just scanning through in blocks of a couple thousand to see if all digits are present.
It'll take me a bit to prove or disprove the limits for this though.
Do 2 reduces on the numbers, a sum and a bitwise XOR.
The sum should be (10G + 1) * 10G / 2
The XOR should be ... something
It looks like there is a catch in the question that no one has talked about so far; the interviewer has only asked the interviewee to write a program that CHECKS
(i) if each number that makes up the 10G is present once and only once--- what should the interviewee do if the numbers in the given list are present multple times? should he assume that he should stop execting the programme and throw exception or should he assume that he should correct the mistake by removing the repeating number and replace it with another (this may actually be a costly excercise as this involves complete reshuffle of the number set)? correcting this is required to perform the second step in the question, i.e. to verify that the data is stored in the best possible way that it requires least possible passes.
(ii) When the interviewee was asked to only check if the 10G weight data set of numbers are stored in such a way that they require least paases to access any of those numbers;
what should the interviewee do? should he stop and throw exception the moment he finds an issue in the algorithm they were stored in, or correct the mistake and continue till all the elements are sorted in the order of least possible passes?
If the intension of the interviewer is to ask the interviewee to write an algorithm that finds the best combinaton of numbers that can be stored in 10GB, given 64 32 Bit registers; and also to write an algorithm to save these chosen set of numbers in the best possible way that require least number of passes to access each; he should have asked this directly, woudn't he?
I suppose the intension of the interviewer may be to only see how the interviewee is approaching the problem rather than to actually extract a working solution from the interviewee; wold any buy this notion?
Regards,
Samba