I have two problems in hand :
I have a dependant variable, lets say GDP, and many other independant variables. I need to know what procedure I can use to find which among the IVs are leading or lagging indicators. I have develop the model in SAS and Excel.
Based on some buy sell rules based out of x day ema and y day sma cross, I need to compute returns. I need to know which procedure I should use to find what values of x and y will give me the best returns (x and y being an array of prefixed values like (200,50)(300,30), etc.). Can a neural network be used here? If so can anyone give me a link to some documentation as to how to carry this out?
Ad 1: probably easiest is to calculate the linear correlation between the time series. Using both simultaneous and shifted time series will tell you something about lead/lag.
Ad 2: look into optimization, not neural networks. Initial and easiest approach is to use grid search: calculate the best returns for each combination of X and Y. Pseudocode:
x = [50:50:500]
y = [10:10:100]
for i in x:
for j in y:
return(i,j) = calculate_returns(x(i),y(j))
end
end
Related
I have implemented an algorithm that uses two other algorithms for calculating the shortest path in a graph: Dijkstra and Bellman-Ford. Based on the time complexity of the these algorithms, I can calculate the running time of my implementation, which is easy giving the code.
Now, I want to experimentally verify my calculation. Specifically, I want to plot the running time as a function of the size of the input (I am following the method described here). The problem is that I have two parameters - number of edges and number of vertices.
I have tried to fix one parameter and change the other, but this approach results in two plots - one for varying number of edges and the other for varying number of vertices.
This leads me to my question - how can I determine the order of growth based on two plots? In general, how can one experimentally determine the running time complexity of an algorithm that has more than one parameter?
It's very difficult in general.
The usual way you would experimentally gauge the running time in the single variable case is, insert a counter that increments when your data structure does a fundamental (putatively O(1)) operation, then take data for many different input sizes, and plot it on a log-log plot. That is, log T vs. log N. If the running time is of the form n^k you should see a straight line of slope k, or something approaching this. If the running time is like T(n) = n^{k log n} or something, then you should see a parabola. And if T is exponential in n you should still see exponential growth.
You can only hope to get information about the highest order term when you do this -- the low order terms get filtered out, in the sense of having less and less impact as n gets larger.
In the two variable case, you could try to do a similar approach -- essentially, take 3 dimensional data, do a log-log-log plot, and try to fit a plane to that.
However this will only really work if there's really only one leading term that dominates in most regimes.
Suppose my actual function is T(n, m) = n^4 + n^3 * m^3 + m^4.
When m = O(1), then T(n) = O(n^4).
When n = O(1), then T(n) = O(m^4).
When n = m, then T(n) = O(n^6).
In each of these regimes, "slices" along the plane of possible n,m values, a different one of the terms is the dominant term.
So there's no way to determine the function just from taking some points with fixed m, and some points with fixed n. If you did that, you wouldn't get the right answer for n = m -- you wouldn't be able to discover "middle" leading terms like that.
I would recommend that the best way to predict asymptotic growth when you have lots of variables / complicated data structures, is with a pencil and piece of paper, and do traditional algorithmic analysis. Or possibly, a hybrid approach. Try to break the question of efficiency into different parts -- if you can split the question up into a sum or product of a few different functions, maybe some of them you can determine in the abstract, and some you can estimate experimentally.
Luckily two input parameters is still easy to visualize in a 3D scatter plot (3rd dimension is the measured running time), and you can check if it looks like a plane (in log-log-log scale) or if it is curved. Naturally random variations in measurements plays a role here as well.
In Matlab I typically calculate a least-squares solution to two-variable function like this (just concatenates different powers and combinations of x and y horizontally, .* is an element-wise product):
x = log(parameter_x);
y = log(parameter_y);
% Find a least-squares fit
p = [x.^2, x.*y, y.^2, x, y, ones(length(x),1)] \ log(time)
Then this can be used to estimate running times for larger problem instances, ideally those would be confirmed experimentally to know that the fitted model works.
This approach works also for higher dimensions but gets tedious to generate, maybe there is a more general way to achieve that and this is just a work-around for my lack of knowledge.
I was going to write my own explanation but it wouldn't be any better than this.
I have a set of first 25 Zernike polynomials. Below are shown few in Cartesin co-ordinate system.
z2 = 2*x
z3 = 2*y
z4 = sqrt(3)*(2*x^2+2*y^2-1)
:
:
z24 = sqrt(14)*(15*(x^2+y^2)^2-20*(x^2+y^2)+6)*(x^2-y^2)
I am not using 1st since it is piston; so I have these 24 two-dim ANALYTICAL functions expressed in X-Y Cartesian co-ordinate system. All are defined over unit circle, as they are orthogonal over unit circle. The problem which I am describing here is relevant to other 2D surfaces also apart from Zernike Polynomials.
Suppose that origin (0,0) of the XY co-ordinate system and the centre of the unit circle are same.
Next, I take linear combination of these 24 polynomials to build a 2D wavefront shape. I use 24 random input coefficients in this combination.
w(x,y) = sum_over_i a_i*z_i (i=2,3,4,....24)
a_i = random coefficients
z_i = zernike polynomials
Upto this point, everything is analytical part which can be done on paper.
Now comes the discretization!
I know that when you want to re-construct a signal (1Dim/2Dim), your sampling frequency should be at least twice the maximum frequency present in the signal (Nyquist-Shanon principle).
Here signal is w(x,y) as mentioned above which is nothing but a simple 2Dim
function of x & y. I want to represent it on computer now. Obviously I can not take all infinite points from -1 to +1 along x axis and same for y axis.
I have to take finite no. of data points (which are called sample points or just samples) on this analytical 2Dim surface w(x,y)
I am measuring x & y in metres, and -1 <= x <= +1; -1 <= y <= +1.
e.g. If I divide my x-axis from -1 to 1, in 50 sample points then dx = 2/50= 0.04 metre. Same for y axis. Now my sampling frequency is 1/dx i.e. 25 samples per metre. Same for y axis.
But I took 50 samples arbitrarily; I could have taken 10 samples or 1000 samples. That is the crux of the matter here: how many samples points?How will I determine this number?
There is one theorem (Nyquist-Shanon theorem) mentioned above which says that if I want to re-construct w(x,y) faithfully, I must sample it on both axes so that my sampling frequency (i.e. no. of samples per metre) is at least twice the maximum frequency present in the w(x,y). This is nothing but finding power spectrum of w(x,y). Idea is that any function in space domain can be represented in spatial-frequency domain also, which is nothing but taking Fourier transform of the function! This tells us how many (spatial) frequencies are present in your function w(x,y) and what is the maximum frequency out of these many frequencies.
Now my question is first how to find out this maximum sampling frequency in my case. I can not use MATLAB fft2() or any other tool since it means already I have samples taken across the wavefront!! Obviously remaining option is find it analytically ! But that is time consuming and difficult since I have 24 polynomials & I will have to use then continuous Fourier transform i.e. I will have to go for pen and paper.
Any help will be appreciated.
Thanks
Key Assumptions
You want to use the "Nyquist-Shanon" theorem to determine sampling frequency
Obviously remaining option is find it analytically ! But that is time
consuming and difficult since I have 21 polynomials & I have to use
continuous Fourier transform i.e. done by analytically.
Given the assumption I have made (and noting that consideration of other mathematical techniques is out of scope for StackOverflow), you have no option but to calculate the continuous Fourier Transform.
However, I believe you haven't considered all the options for calculating the transform other than a laborious paper exercise e.g.
Numerical approximation of the continuous F.T. using code
Symbolic Integration e.g. Wolfram Alpha
Surely a numerical approximation of the Fourier Transform will be adequate for your solution?
I am assuming this is for coursework or research rather, so all you really care about as a physicist is a solution that is the quickest solution that is accurate within the scope of your problem.
So to conclude, IMHO, don't waste time searching for a more mathematically elegant solution or trick and just solve the problem with one of the above methods
I am using the code in this website http://blog.chrislowis.co.uk/2008/11/24/ruby-gsl-pearson.html to implement a Pearson Correlation given two time series data like so:
require 'gsl'
pearson_correlation = GSL::Stats::correlation(
GSL::Vector.alloc(first_metrics),GSL::Vector.alloc(second_metrics)
)
This returns a number such as -0.2352461593569471.
I'm currently using the highcharts library and am feeding it two sets of timeseries data. Given that I have a finite time series for both sets, can I do something with this number (-0.2352461593569471) to create a third time series showing the slope of this curve? If anyone can point me in the right direction I'd really appreciate it!
No, correlation doesn't tell you anything about the slope of the line of best fit. It just tells you approximately how much of the variability in one variable (or one time series, in this case) can be explained by the other. There is a reasonably good description here: http://www.graphpad.com/support/faqid/1141/.
How you deal with the data in your specific case is highly dependent on what you're trying to achieve. Are you trying to show that variable X causes variable Y? If so, you could start by dropping the time-series-ness, and just treat the data as paired values, and use linear regression. If you're trying to find a model of how X and Y vary together over time, you could look at multivariate linear regression (I'm not very familiar with this, though).
I'm trying to compute the maxima of some function of one variable (something like this:)
(which is calculated from a non-trivial convolution, so, no, I don't have an expression for it)
Using the command:
NMaximize[{f[x], 0 < x < 1}, x, AccuracyGoal -> 4, PrecisionGoal -> 4]
(I'm not that worried about super accuracy, a rough estimate of 10^-4 is already enough)
The result of this is x* = 0.55, which is not what should be. (i.e., it is picking the third peak).
Is there any way of telling mathematica that the global maxima is the first one when counting from x = 0 (I know this is always true), or make mathematica search with a better approach? (Notice, I don't want things like Stimulated Annealing approach; each evaluation is very costly!)
Thanks very much!
Try FindMaximum with a starting point of 0 or some similarly small value.
edit
So based on the answers so far (thanks for taking your time) I'm getting the sense that I'm probably NOT looking for a Normal Distribution function. Perhaps I'll try to re-describe what I'm looking to do.
Lets say I have an object that returns a number of 0 to 10. And that number controls "speed". However instead of 10 being the top speed, I need 5 to be the top speed, and anything lower or higher would slow down accordingly. (with easing, thus the bell curve)
I hope that's clearer ;/
-original question
These are the times I wish I remembered something from math class.
I'm trying to figure out how to write a function in obj-C where I define the boundries, ex (0 - 10) and then if x = foo y = ? .... where x runs something like 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 and y runs 0,1,2,3,4,5,4,3,2,1,0 but only on a curve
Something like the attached image.
I tried googling for Normal Distribution but its way over my head. I was hoping to find some site that lists some useful algorithms like these but wasn't very successful.
So can anyone help me out here ? And if there is some good sites which shows useful mathematical functions, I'd love to check them out.
TIA!!!
-added
I'm not looking for a random number, I'm looking for.. ex: if x=0 y should be 0, if x=5 y should be 5, if x=10 y should be 0.... and all those other not so obvious in between numbers
alt text http://dizy.cc/slider.gif
Okay, your edit really clarifies things. You're not looking for anything to do with the normal distribution, just a nice smooth little ramp function. The one Paul provides will do nicely, but is tricky to modify for other values. It can be made a little more flexible (my code examples are in Python, which should be very easy to translate to any other language):
def quarticRamp(x, b=10, peak=5):
if not 0 <= x <= b:
raise ValueError #or return 0
return peak*x*x*(x-b)*(x-b)*16/(b*b*b*b)
Parameter b is the upper bound for the region you want to have a slope on (10, in your example), and peak is how high you want it to go (5, in the example).
Personally I like a quadratic spline approach, which is marginally cheaper computationally and has a different curve to it (this curve is really nice to use in a couple of special applications that don't happen to matter at all for you):
def quadraticSplineRamp(x, a=0, b=10, peak=5):
if not a <= x <= b:
raise ValueError #or return 0
if x > (b+a)/2:
x = a + b - x
z = 2*(x-a)/b
if z > 0.5:
return peak * (1 - 2*(z-1)*(z-1))
else:
return peak * (2*z*z)
This is similar to the other function, but takes a lower bound a (0 in your example). The logic is a little more complex because it's a somewhat-optimized implementation of a piecewise function.
The two curves have slightly different shapes; you probably don't care what the exact shape is, and so could pick either. There are an infinite number of ramp functions meeting your criteria; these are two simple ones, but they can get as baroque as you want.
The thing you want to plot is the probability density function (pdf) of the normal distribution. You can find it on the mighty Wikipedia.
Luckily, the pdf for a normal distribution is not difficult to implement - some of the other related functions are considerably worse because they require the error function.
To get a plot like you showed, you want a mean of 5 and a standard deviation of about 1.5. The median is obviously the centre, and figuring out an appropriate standard deviation given the left & right boundaries isn't particularly difficult.
A function to calculate the y value of the pdf given the x coordinate, standard deviation and mean might look something like:
double normal_pdf(double x, double mean, double std_dev) {
return( 1.0/(sqrt(2*PI)*std_dev) *
exp(-(x-mean)*(x-mean)/(2*std_dev*std_dev)) );
}
A normal distribution is never equal to 0.
Please make sure that what you want to plot is indeed a
normal distribution.
If you're only looking for this bell shape (with the tangent and everything)
you can use the following formula:
x^2*(x-10)^2 for x between 0 and 10
0 elsewhere
(Divide by 125 if you need to have your peek on 5.)
double bell(double x) {
if ((x < 10) && (x>0))
return x*x*(x-10.)*(x-10.)/125.;
else
return 0.;
}
Well, there's good old Wikipedia, of course. And Mathworld.
What you want is a random number generator for "generating normally distributed random deviates". Since Objective C can call regular C libraries, you either need a C-callable library like the GNU Scientific Library, or for this, you can write it yourself following the description here.
Try simulating rolls of dice by generating random numbers between 1 and 6. If you add up the rolls from 5 independent dice rolls, you'll get a surprisingly good approximation to the normal distribution. You can roll more dice if you'd like and you'll get a better approximation.
Here's an article that explains why this works. It's probably more mathematical detail than you want, but you could show it to someone to justify your approach.
If what you want is the value of the probability density function, p(x), of a normal (Gaussian) distribution of mean mu and standard deviation sigma at x, the formula is
p(x) = exp( ((x-mu)^2)/(2*sigma^2) ) / (sigma * 2 * sqrt(pi))
where pi is the area of a circle divided by the square of its radius (approximately 3.14159...). Using the C standard library math.h, this is:
#include <math>
double normal_pdf(double x, double mu, double sigma) {
double n = sigma * 2 * sqrt(M_PI); //normalization factor
p = exp( -pow(x-mu, 2) / (2 * pow(sigma, 2)) ); // unnormalized pdf
return p / n;
}
Of course, you can do the same in Objective-C.
For reference, see the Wikipedia or MathWorld articles.
It sounds like you want to write a function that yields a curve of a specific shape. Something like y = f(x), for x in [0:10]. You have a constraint on the max value of y, and a general idea of what you want the curve to look like (somewhat bell-shaped, y=0 at the edges of the x range, y=5 when x=5). So roughly, you would call your function iteratively with the x range, with a step that gives you enough points to make your curve look nice.
So you really don't need random numbers, and this has nothing to do with probability unless you want it to (as in, you want your curve to look like a the outline of a normal distribution or something along those lines).
If you have a clear idea of what function will yield your desired curve, the code is trivial - a function to compute f(x) and a for loop to call it the desired number of times for the desired values of x. Plot the x,y pairs and you're done. So that's your algorithm - call a function in a for loop.
The contents of the routine implementing the function will depend on the specifics of what you want the curve to look like. If you need help on functions that might return a curve resembling your sample, I would direct you to the reading material in the other answers. :) However, I suspect that this is actually an assignment of some sort, and that you have been given a function already. If you are actually doing this on your own to learn, then I again echo the other reading suggestions.
y=-1*abs(x-5)+5