I'm trying to implement a variable exponential moving average on a time series of intraday data (i.e 10 seconds). By variable, I mean that the size of the window included in the moving average depends on another factor (i.e. volatility). I was thinking of the following:
MA(t)=alpha(t)*price(t) + (1-alpha(t))MA(t-1),
where alpha corresponds for example to a changing volatility index.
In a backtest on huge series (more than 100000) points, this computation causes me "troubles". I have the complete vectors alpha and price, but for the current values of MA I always need the value just calculated before. Thus, so far I do not see a vectorized solution????
Another idea, I had, was trying to directly apply the implemented EMA(..,n=f()) function to every data point, by always having a different value for f(). But I do not find a fast solution neither so far.
Would be very kind if somebody could help me with my problem??? Even other suggestions of how constructing a variable moving average would be great.
Thx a lot in advance
Martin
A very efficient moving average operation is also possible via filter():
## create a weight vector -- this one has equal weights, other schemes possible
weights <- rep(1/nobs, nobs)
## and apply it as a one-sided moving average calculations, see help(filter)
movavg <- as.vector(filter(somevector, weights, method="convolution", side=1))
That was left-sided only, other choices are possible.
For timeseries, see the function rollmean in the zoo package.
You actually don't calculate a moving average, but some kind of a weighted cumulative average. A (weighted) moving average would be something like :
price <- runif(100,10,1000)
alpha <- rbeta(100,1,0.5)
tp <- embed(price,2)
ta <- embed(alpha,2)
MA1 <- apply(cbind(tp,ta),1,function(x){
weighted.mean(x[1:2],w=2*x[3:4]/sum(x))
})
Make sure you rescale the weights so they sum to the amount of observations.
For your own calculation, you could try something like :
MAt <- price*alpha
ma.MAt <- matrix(rep(MAt,each=n),nrow=n)
ma.MAt[upper.tri(ma.MAt)] <- 0
tt1 <- sapply(1:n,function(x){
tmp <- rev(c(rep(0,n-x),1,cumprod(rev(alpha[1:(x-1)])))[1:n])
sum(ma.MAt[i,]*tmp)
})
This calculates the averages as linear combinations of MAt, with weights defined by the cumulative product of alpha.
On a sidenote : I assumed the index to lie somewhere between 0 and 1.
I just added a VMA function to the TTR package to do this. For example:
library(quantmod) # loads TTR
getSymbols("SPY")
SPY$absCMO <- abs(CMO(Cl(SPY),20))/100
SPY$vma <- VMA(Cl(SPY), SPY$absCMO)
chartSeries(SPY,TA="addTA(SPY$vma,on=1,col='blue')")
x <- xts(rnorm(1e6),Sys.time()-1e6:1)
y <- xts(runif(1e6),Sys.time()-1e6:1)
system.time(VMA(x,y)) # < 0.5s on a 2.2Ghz Centrino
A couple notes from the documentation:
‘VMA’ calculate a variable-length
moving average based on the absolute
value of ‘w’. Higher (lower) values
of ‘w’ will cause ‘VMA’ to react
faster (slower).
The pre-compiled binaries should be on R-forge within 24 hours.
Related
I made some recordings from a head tracker which provides the 4 values of the quaternions, which are saved in a csv (each row is a set of quaternion plus a timestamp).
I need to calculate for the whole recording how much the head moved. This is needed for an experiment where I would like to see whether under a condition the head moved more or less compared to another condition.
What is the best way to get a single quantity for each recording?
I have some proposals but I do not know how much appropriate they are:
PROPOSAL 1) I calculate the cumulative sum of the absolute value of the derivatives for each quaternion value, then I sum the 4 sums together to get a single value
PROPOSAL 2) I calculate the cumulative sum of the absolute value of the derivatives of the norm
Sounds like you just want a rough estimate of total angular movement as a single value. One way is to assume minimum rotation angle between quaternion samples and then just add up those angles. E.g., suppose two consecutive quaternion samples are q1 and q2. Then calculate the quaternion multiply q = q1 * inv(q2) and your delta-angle for that step is 2*acos(abs(qw)). Do this for each step and add up all the delta angles.
My questions are specific to https://scikit-learn.org/stable/modules/generated/sklearn.decomposition.PCA.html#sklearn.decomposition.PCA.
I don't understand why you square eigenvalues
https://github.com/scikit-learn/scikit-learn/blob/55bf5d9/sklearn/decomposition/pca.py#L444
here?
Also, explained_variance is not computed for new transformed data other than original data used to compute eigen-vectors. Is that not normally done?
pca = PCA(n_components=2, svd_solver='full')
pca.fit(X)
pca.transform(Y)
In this case, won't you separately calculate explained variance for data Y as well. For that purpose, I think we would have to use point 3 instead of using eigen-values.
Explained variance can be also computed by taking the variance of each axis in the transformed space and dividing by the total variance. Any reason that is not done here?
Answers to your questions:
1) The square roots of the eigenvalues of the scatter matrix (e.g. XX.T) are the singular values of X (see here: https://math.stackexchange.com/a/3871/536826). So you square them. Important: the initial matrix X should be centered (data has been preprocessed to have zero mean) in order for the above to hold.
2) Yes this is the way to go. explained_variance is computed based on the singular values. See point 1.
3) It's the same but in the case you describe you HAVE to project the data and then do additional computations. No need for that if you just compute it using the eigenvalues / singular values (see point 1 again for the connection between these two).
Finally, keep in mind that not everyone really wants to project the data. Someone can only get the eigenvalues and then immediately estimate the explained variance WITHOUT projecting the data. So that's the best gold standard way to do it.
EDIT 1:
Answer to edited Point 2
No. PCA is an unsupervised method. It only transforms the X data not the Y (labels).
Again, the explained variance can be computed fast, easily, and with half line of code using the eigenvalues/singular values OR as you said using the projected data e.g. estimating the covariance of the projected data, then variances of PCs will be in the diagonal.
I'm fairly new to JAGS, so this may be a dumb question. I'm trying to run a model in JAGS that predicts the probability that a one-dimensional random walk process will cross boundary A before crossing boundary B. This model can be solved analytically via the following logistic model:
Pr(A,B) = 1/(1 + exp(-2 * (d/sigma) * theta))
where "d" is the mean drift rate (positive values indicate drift toward boundary A), "sigma" is the standard deviation of that drift rate and "theta" is the distance between the starting point and the boundary (assumed to be equal for both boundaries).
My dataset consists of 50 participants, who each provide 1800 observations. My model assumes that d is determined by a particular combination of observed environmental variables (which I'll just call 'x'), and a weighting coefficient that relates x to d (which I'll call 'beta'). Thus, there are three parameters: beta, sigma, and theta. I'd like to estimate a single set of parameters for each participant. My intention is to eventually run a hierarchical model, where group level parameters influence individual level parameters. However, for simplicity, here I will just consider a model in which I estimate a single set of parameters for one participant (and thus the model is not hierarchical).
My model in rjags would be as follows:
model{
for ( i in 1:Ntotal ) {
d[i] <- x[i] * beta
probA[i] <- 1/(1+exp(-2 * (d[i]/sigma) * theta ) )
y[i] ~ dbern(probA[i])
}
beta ~ dunif(-10,10)
sigma ~ dunif(0,10)
theta ~ dunif(0,10)
}
This model runs fine, but takes ages to run. I'm not sure how JAGS carries out the code, but if this code were run in R, it would be rather inefficient because it would have to loop over cases, running the model for each case individually. The time required to run the analysis would therefore increase rapidly as the sample size increases. I have a rather large sample, so this is a concern.
Is there a way to vectorise this code so that it can calculate the likelihood for all of the data points at once? For example, if I were to run this as a simple maximum likelihood model. I would vectorize the model and calculate the probability of the data given particular parameter values for all 1800 cases provided by the participant (and thus would not need the for loop). I would then take the log of these likelihoods and add them all together to give a single loglikelihood for the all observations given by the participant. This method has enormous time savings. Is there a way to do this in JAGS?
EDIT
Thanks for the responses, and for pointing out that the parameters in the model I showed might be unidentified. I should've pointed out that model was a simplified version. The full model is below:
model{
for ( i in 1:Ntotal ) {
aExpectancy[i] <- 1/(1+exp(-gamma*(aTimeRemaining[i] - aDiscrepancy[i]*aExpectedLag[i]) ) )
bExpectancy[i] <- 1/(1+exp(-gamma*(bTimeRemaining[i] - bDiscrepancy[i]*bExpectedLag[i]) ) )
aUtility[i] <- aValence[i]*aExpectancy[i]/(1 + discount * (aTimeRemaining[i]))
bUtility[i] <- bValence[i]*bExpectancy[i]/(1 + discount * (bTimeRemaining[i]))
aMotivationalValueMean[i] <- aUtility[i]*aQualityMean[i]
bMotivationalValueMean[i] <- bUtility[i]*bQualityMean[i]
aMotivationalValueVariance[i] <- (aUtility[i]*aQualitySD[i])^2 + (bUtility[i]*bQualitySD[i])^2
bMotivationalValueVariance[i] <- (aUtility[i]*aQualitySD[i])^2 + (bUtility[i]*bQualitySD[i])^2
mvDiffVariance[i] <- aMotivationalValueVariance[i] + bMotivationalValueVariance[i]
meanDrift[i] <- (aMotivationalValueMean[i] - bMotivationalValueMean[i])
probA[i] <- 1/(1+exp(-2*(meanDrift[i]/sqrt(mvDiffVariance[i])) *theta ) )
y[i] ~ dbern(probA[i])
}
In this model, the estimated parameters are theta, discount, and gamma, and these parameters can be recovered. When I run the model on the observations for a single participant (Ntotal = 1800), the model takes about 5 minutes to run, which is totally fine. However, when I run the model on the entire sample (45 participants x 1800 cases each = 78,900 observations), I've had it running for 24 hours and it's less than 50% of the way through. This seems odd, as I would expect it to just take 45 times as long, so 4 or 5 hours at most. Am I missing something?
I hope I am not misreading this situation (and I previously apologize if I am), but your question seems to come from a conceptual misunderstanding of how JAGS works (or WinBUGS or OpenBUGS for that matter).
Your program does not actually run, because what you wrote was not written in a programming language. So vectorizing will not help.
You wrote just a description of your model, because JAGS' language is a descriptive one.
Once JAGS reads your model, it assembles a transition matrix to run a MCMC whose stationary distribution is the posteriori distribution of your parameters given your (observed) data. JAGS does nothing else with your program.
All that time you have been waiting the program to run was actually waiting (and hoping) to reach relaxation time of your MCMC.
So, what is taking your program too long to run is that the resulting transition matrix must have bad relaxing properties or anything like that.
That is why vectorizing a program that is read and run only once will be of very little help.
So, your problem lies somewhere else.
I hope it helps and, if not, sorry.
All the best.
You can't vectorise in the same way that you would in R, but if you can group observations with the same probability expression (i.e. common d[i]) then you can use a Binomial rather than Bernoulli distribution which will help enormously. If each observation has a unique d[i] then you are stuck I'm afraid.
Another alternative is to look at Stan which is generally faster for large data sets like yours.
Matt
thanks for the responses. Yes, you make a good point that the parameters in the model I showed might be unidentified.
I should've pointed out that model was a simplified version. The full model is below:
model{
for ( i in 1:Ntotal ) {
aExpectancy[i] <- 1/(1+exp(-gamma*(aTimeRemaining[i] - aDiscrepancy[i]*aExpectedLag[i]) ) )
bExpectancy[i] <- 1/(1+exp(-gamma*(bTimeRemaining[i] - bDiscrepancy[i]*bExpectedLag[i]) ) )
aUtility[i] <- aValence[i]*aExpectancy[i]/(1 + discount * (aTimeRemaining[i]))
bUtility[i] <- bValence[i]*bExpectancy[i]/(1 + discount * (bTimeRemaining[i]))
aMotivationalValueMean[i] <- aUtility[i]*aQualityMean[i]
bMotivationalValueMean[i] <- bUtility[i]*bQualityMean[i]
aMotivationalValueVariance[i] <- (aUtility[i]*aQualitySD[i])^2 + (bUtility[i]*bQualitySD[i])^2
bMotivationalValueVariance[i] <- (aUtility[i]*aQualitySD[i])^2 + (bUtility[i]*bQualitySD[i])^2
mvDiffVariance[i] <- aMotivationalValueVariance[i] + bMotivationalValueVariance[i]
meanDrift[i] <- (aMotivationalValueMean[i] - bMotivationalValueMean[i])
probA[i] <- 1/(1+exp(-2*(meanDrift[i]/sqrt(mvDiffVariance[i])) *theta ) )
y[i] ~ dbern(probA[i])
}
theta ~ dunif(0,10)
discount ~ dunif(0,10)
gamma ~ dunif(0,1)
}
In this model, the estimated parameters are theta, discount, and gamma, and these parameters can be recovered.
When I run the model on the observations for a single participant (Ntotal = 1800), the model takes about 5 minutes to run, which is totally fine.
However, when I run the model on the entire sample (45 participants X 1800 cases each = 78,900 observations), I've had it running for 24 hours and it's less than 50% of the way through.
This seems odd, as I would expect it to just take 45 times as long, so 4 or 5 hours at most. Am I missing something?
I have a set of first 25 Zernike polynomials. Below are shown few in Cartesin co-ordinate system.
z2 = 2*x
z3 = 2*y
z4 = sqrt(3)*(2*x^2+2*y^2-1)
:
:
z24 = sqrt(14)*(15*(x^2+y^2)^2-20*(x^2+y^2)+6)*(x^2-y^2)
I am not using 1st since it is piston; so I have these 24 two-dim ANALYTICAL functions expressed in X-Y Cartesian co-ordinate system. All are defined over unit circle, as they are orthogonal over unit circle. The problem which I am describing here is relevant to other 2D surfaces also apart from Zernike Polynomials.
Suppose that origin (0,0) of the XY co-ordinate system and the centre of the unit circle are same.
Next, I take linear combination of these 24 polynomials to build a 2D wavefront shape. I use 24 random input coefficients in this combination.
w(x,y) = sum_over_i a_i*z_i (i=2,3,4,....24)
a_i = random coefficients
z_i = zernike polynomials
Upto this point, everything is analytical part which can be done on paper.
Now comes the discretization!
I know that when you want to re-construct a signal (1Dim/2Dim), your sampling frequency should be at least twice the maximum frequency present in the signal (Nyquist-Shanon principle).
Here signal is w(x,y) as mentioned above which is nothing but a simple 2Dim
function of x & y. I want to represent it on computer now. Obviously I can not take all infinite points from -1 to +1 along x axis and same for y axis.
I have to take finite no. of data points (which are called sample points or just samples) on this analytical 2Dim surface w(x,y)
I am measuring x & y in metres, and -1 <= x <= +1; -1 <= y <= +1.
e.g. If I divide my x-axis from -1 to 1, in 50 sample points then dx = 2/50= 0.04 metre. Same for y axis. Now my sampling frequency is 1/dx i.e. 25 samples per metre. Same for y axis.
But I took 50 samples arbitrarily; I could have taken 10 samples or 1000 samples. That is the crux of the matter here: how many samples points?How will I determine this number?
There is one theorem (Nyquist-Shanon theorem) mentioned above which says that if I want to re-construct w(x,y) faithfully, I must sample it on both axes so that my sampling frequency (i.e. no. of samples per metre) is at least twice the maximum frequency present in the w(x,y). This is nothing but finding power spectrum of w(x,y). Idea is that any function in space domain can be represented in spatial-frequency domain also, which is nothing but taking Fourier transform of the function! This tells us how many (spatial) frequencies are present in your function w(x,y) and what is the maximum frequency out of these many frequencies.
Now my question is first how to find out this maximum sampling frequency in my case. I can not use MATLAB fft2() or any other tool since it means already I have samples taken across the wavefront!! Obviously remaining option is find it analytically ! But that is time consuming and difficult since I have 24 polynomials & I will have to use then continuous Fourier transform i.e. I will have to go for pen and paper.
Any help will be appreciated.
Thanks
Key Assumptions
You want to use the "Nyquist-Shanon" theorem to determine sampling frequency
Obviously remaining option is find it analytically ! But that is time
consuming and difficult since I have 21 polynomials & I have to use
continuous Fourier transform i.e. done by analytically.
Given the assumption I have made (and noting that consideration of other mathematical techniques is out of scope for StackOverflow), you have no option but to calculate the continuous Fourier Transform.
However, I believe you haven't considered all the options for calculating the transform other than a laborious paper exercise e.g.
Numerical approximation of the continuous F.T. using code
Symbolic Integration e.g. Wolfram Alpha
Surely a numerical approximation of the Fourier Transform will be adequate for your solution?
I am assuming this is for coursework or research rather, so all you really care about as a physicist is a solution that is the quickest solution that is accurate within the scope of your problem.
So to conclude, IMHO, don't waste time searching for a more mathematically elegant solution or trick and just solve the problem with one of the above methods
I've tried the typical physics equations for this but none of them really work because the equations deal with constant acceleration and mine will need to change to work correctly. Basically I have a car that can be going at a large range of speeds and needs to slow down and stop over a given distance and time as it reaches the end of its path.
So, I have:
V0, or the current speed
Vf, or the speed I want to reach (typically 0)
t, or the amount of time I want to take to reach the end of my path
d, or the distance I want to go as I change from V0 to Vf
I want to calculate
a, or the acceleration needed to go from V0 to Vf
The reason this becomes a programming-specific question is because a needs to be recalculated every single timestep as the car keeps stopping. So, V0 constantly is changed to be V0 from last timestep plus the a that was calculated last timestep. So essentially it will start stopping slowly then will eventually stop more abruptly, sort of like a car in real life.
EDITS:
All right, thanks for the great responses. A lot of what I needed was just some help thinking about this. Let me be more specific now that I've got some more ideas from you all:
I have a car c that is 64 pixels from its destination, so d=64. It is driving at 2 pixels per timestep, where a timestep is 1/60 of a second. I want to find the acceleration a that will bring it to a speed of 0.2 pixels per timestep by the time it has traveled d.
d = 64 //distance
V0 = 2 //initial velocity (in ppt)
Vf = 0.2 //final velocity (in ppt)
Also because this happens in a game loop, a variable delta is passed through to each action, which is the multiple of 1/60s that the last timestep took. In other words, if it took 1/60s, then delta is 1.0, if it took 1/30s, then delta is 0.5. Before acceleration is actually applied, it is multiplied by this delta value. Similarly, before the car moves again its velocity is multiplied by the delta value. This is pretty standard stuff, but it might be what is causing problems with my calculations.
Linear acceleration a for a distance d going from a starting speed Vi to a final speed Vf:
a = (Vf*Vf - Vi*Vi)/(2 * d)
EDIT:
After your edit, let me try and gauge what you need...
If you take this formula and insert your numbers, you get a constant acceleration of -0,0309375. Now, let's keep calling this result 'a'.
What you need between timestamps (frames?) is not actually the acceleration, but new location of the vehicle, right? So you use the following formula:
Sd = Vi * t + 0.5 * t * t * a
where Sd is the current distance from the start position at current frame/moment/sum_of_deltas, Vi is the starting speed, and t is the time since the start.
With this, your decceleration is constant, but even if it is linear, your speed will accomodate to your constraints.
If you want a non-linear decceleration, you could find some non-linear interpolation method, and interpolate not acceleration, but simply position between two points.
location = non_linear_function(time);
The four constraints you give are one too many for a linear system (one with constant acceleration), where any three of the variables would suffice to compute the acceleration and thereby determine the fourth variables. However, the system is way under-specified for a completely general nonlinear system -- there may be uncountably infinite ways to change acceleration over time while satisfying all the constraints as given. Can you perhaps specify better along what kind of curve acceleration should change over time?
Using 0 index to mean "at the start", 1 to mean "at the end", and D for Delta to mean "variation", given a linearly changing acceleration
a(t) = a0 + t * (a1-a0)/Dt
where a0 and a1 are the two parameters we want to compute to satisfy all the various constraints, I compute (if there's been no misstep, as I did it all by hand):
DV = Dt * (a0+a1)/2
Ds = Dt * (V0 + ((a1-a0)/6 + a0/2) * Dt)
Given DV, Dt and Ds are all given, this leaves 2 linear equations in the unknowns a0 and a1 so you can solve for these (but I'm leaving things in this form to make it easier to double check on my derivations!!!).
If you're applying the proper formulas at every step to compute changes in space and velocity, it should make no difference whether you compute a0 and a1 once and for all or recompute them at every step based on the remaining Dt, Ds and DV.
If you're trying to simulate a time-dependent acceleration in your equations, it just means that you should assume that. You have to integrate F = ma along with the acceleration equations, that's all. If acceleration isn't constant, you just have to solve a system of equations instead of just one.
So now it's really three vector equations that you have to integrate simultaneously: one for each component of displacement, velocity, and acceleration, or nine equations in total. The force as a function of time will be an input for your problem.
If you're assuming 1D motion you're down to three simultaneous equations. The ones for velocity and displacement are both pretty easy.
In real life, a car's stopping ability depends on the pressure on the brake pedal, any engine braking that's going on, surface conditions, and such: also, there's that "grab" at the end when the car really stops. Modeling that is complicated, and you're unlikely to find good answers on a programming website. Find some automotive engineers.
Aside from that, I don't know what you're asking for. Are you trying to determine a braking schedule? As in there's a certain amount of deceleration while coasting, and then applying the brake? In real driving, the time is not usually considered in these maneuvers, but rather the distance.
As far as I can tell, your problem is that you aren't asking for anything specific, which suggests that you really haven't figured out what you actually want. If you'd provide a sample use for this, we could probably help you. As it is, you've provided the bare bones of a problem that is either overdetermined or way underconstrained, and there's really nothing we can do with that.
if you need to go from 10m/s to 0m/s in 1m with linear acceleration you need 2 equations.
first find the time (t) it takes to stop.
v0 = initial velocity
vf = final velocity
x0 = initial displacement
xf = final displacement
a = constant linear acceleration
(xf-x0)=.5*(v0-vf)*t
t=2*(xf-x0)/(v0-vf)
t=2*(1m-0m)/(10m/s-0m/s)
t=.2seconds
next to calculate the linear acceleration between x0 & xf
(xf-x0)=(v0-vf)*t+.5*a*t^2
(1m-0m)=(10m/s-0m/s)*(.2s)+.5*a*((.2s)^2)
1m=(10m/s)*(.2s)+.5*a*(.04s^2)
1m=2m+a*(.02s^2)
-1m=a*(.02s^2)
a=-1m/(.02s^2)
a=-50m/s^2
in terms of gravity (g's)
a=(-50m/s^2)/(9.8m/s^2)
a=5.1g over the .2 seconds from 0m to 10m
Problem is either overconstrained or underconstrained (a is not constant? is there a maximum a?) or ambiguous.
Simplest formula would be a=(Vf-V0)/t
Edit: if time is not constrained, and distance s is constrained, and acceleration is constant, then the relevant formulae are s = (Vf+V0)/2 * t, t=(Vf-V0)/a which simplifies to a = (Vf2 - V02) / (2s).