I want to estimate short- and long-run price elasticities for energy demand using a dynamic panel regression. My data contains of large N (>1000) and small T (12). I started with an ARDL representation as follows:
$EC_{it} = c + \sum_{j=1}^p \phi EC_{i,t-j} + \sum_{i=0}^q \theta X_{i, t-i} + \epsilon_{it}$
To estimate the parameters I would use the ARDL-PMG estimator, however the literature tells me these are biased for small T. For small T dynamic panel models the Arellano-Bond estimator is proposed, however, is it possible to estimate short-run elasticities using this estimator and furthermore I cannot find how this estimator deals with I(0)/I(1) variables (which is clear for the ARDL specification).
Thanks in advance
Hein
I am new to the field of optimization and I need help in the following optimization problem. I have tried to solve it using normal coding to make sure that I got he correct results. However, the results I got are different and I am not sure my way of analysis is correct or not. This is a short description of the problem:
The objective function shown in the picture is used to find the optimal temperature of the insulating system that minimizes the total cost over a given horizon.
[This image provides the mathematical description of the objective function and the constraints] (https://i.stack.imgur.com/yidrO.png)
The data of the problems are as follow:
1-
Problem data:
A=1.07×10^8
h=1
T_ref=87.5
N=20
p1=0.001;
p2=0.0037;
This is the curve I want to obtain
2- Optimization variable:
u_t
3- Model type:
The model is a nonlinear cost function with non-linear constraints and it is solved using non-linear solver SNOPT.
4-The meaning of the symbols in the objective and constrained functions
The optimization is performed over a prediction horizon of N years.
T_ref is The reference temperature.
Represent the degree of polymerization in the kth year.
X_DP Represents the temperature of the insulating system in the kth year.
h is the time step (1 year) of the discrete-time model.
R is the ratio of the load loss at the rated load to the no-load loss.
E is the activation energy.
A is the pre-exponential constant.
beta is a linear coefficient representing the cost due to the decrement of the temperature.
I have developed the source code in MATLAB, this code is used to check if my analysis is correct or not.
I have tried to initialize the Ut value in its increasing or decreasing states so that I can have the curves similar to the original one. [This is the curve I obtained] (https://i.stack.imgur.com/KVv2q.png)
I have tried to simulate the problem using conventional coding without optimization and I got the figure shown above.
close all; clear all;
h=1;
N=20;
a=250;
R=8.314;
A=1.07*10^8;
E=111000;
Tref=87.5;
p1=0.0019;
p2=0.0037;
p3=0.0037;
Utt=[80,80.7894736842105,81.5789473684211,82.3684210526316,83.1578947368421,... % The value of Utt given here represent the temperature increament over a predictive horizon.
83.9473684210526,84.7368421052632,85.5263157894737,86.3157894736842,...
87.1052631578947,87.8947368421053,88.6842105263158,89.4736842105263,...
90.2631578947369,91.0526315789474,91.8421052631579,92.6315789473684,...
93.4210526315790,94.2105263157895,95];
Utt1 = [95,94.2105263157895,93.4210526315790,92.6315789473684,91.8421052631579,... % The value of Utt1 given here represent the temperature decreament over a predictive horizon.
91.0526315789474,90.2631578947369,89.4736842105263,88.6842105263158,...
87.8947368421053,87.1052631578947,86.3157894736842,85.5263157894737,...
84.7368421052632,83.9473684210526,83.1578947368421,82.3684210526316,...
81.5789473684211,80.7894736842105,80];
Ut1=zeros(1,N);
Ut2=zeros(1,N);
Xdp =zeros(N,N);
Xdp(1,1)=1000;
Xdp1 =zeros(N,N);
Xdp1(1,1)=1000;
for L=1:N-1
for k=1:N-1
%vt(k+L)=Ut(k-L+1);
Xdq(k+1,L) =(1/Xdp(k,L))+A*exp((-1*E)/(R*(Utt(k)+273)))*24*365*h;
Xdp(k+1,L)=1/(Xdq(k+1,L));
Xdp(k,L+1)=1/(Xdq(k+1,L));
Xdq1(k+1,L) =(1/Xdp1(k,L))+A*exp((-1*E)/(R*(Utt1(k)+273)))*24*365*h;
Xdp1(k+1,L)=1/(Xdq1(k+1,L));
Xdp1(k,L+1)=1/(Xdq1(k+1,L));
end
end
% MATLAB code
for j =1:N-1
Ut1(j)= -p1*(Utt(j)-Tref);
Ut2(j)= -p2*(Utt1(j)-Tref);
end
sum00=sum(Ut1);
sum01=sum(Ut2);
X1=1./Xdp(:,1);
Xf=1./Xdp(:,20);
Total= table(X1,Xf);
Tdiff =a*(Total.Xf-Total.X1);
X22=1./Xdp1(:,1);
X2f=1./Xdp1(:,20);
Total22= table(X22,X2f);
Tdiff22 =a*(Total22.X2f-Total22.X22);
obj=(sum00+(Tdiff));
ob1 = min(obj);
obj2=sum01+Tdiff22;
ob2 = min(obj2);
plot(Utt,obj,'-o');
hold on
plot(Utt1,obj)
I'm analysing longitudinal panel data, in which individuals transition between different states in a Markov chain. I'm modelling the transition rates between states using a series of multinomial logistic regressions. This means that I end up with a very large number of regression slopes.
For each regression slope, I obtain a posterior distribution (using WinBUGS). From the posterior distribution, we get the mean, standard deviation, and 95% credible interval associated with the slope in question.
The value I am ultimately interested in is the expected first passage time ('hitting time') through the Markov chain. This is a function of all the different predictor variables, and so is built from the many regression slopes produced by the multinomial logistic regressions.
A simple approach would be to take the mean of each posterior distribution as a point-estimate for each regression slope, and solve for the expected first passage time at a series of different values of the predictor variables. I have now done this, but it is potentially misleading because it doesn't show the uncertainty around the predicted values of expected first passage time.
My question is: how can I calculate a credible interval for the expected first passage time?
My first thought was to approximate the error via simulation, by sampling individual values for the regression slopes from each posterior distribution, obtaining the expected first passage time given those values, and then plotting the standard deviation of all these simulated values. However, I feel like (a) this would make a statistician scream and (b) it doesn't take into account the fact that different posterior distributions will be correlated (it samples from each one independently).
In WinBUGS, you can actually obtain the correlations between the posterior distributions. So if the simulation idea is appropriate, I could in theory simulate the regression slope coefficients incorporating these correlations.
Is there a more direct and less approximate way to find the uncertainty? Could I, for instance, use WinBUGS to find the posterior distribution of the expected first passage time for a given set of values of the predictor variables? Rather like the answer to this question: define a new node and monitor it. I would imagine defining a series of new nodes, where each one is for a different set of actual predictor values, and monitoring each one. Does this make good statistical sense?
Any thoughts about this would be really appreciated!
In an evolutionary programming project I'm working on I thought it could be a useful idea to use the formula in Bayes' theorem. Although I'm not totally sure what that would look like.
So the programs that are evolving are attempting to predict the future state of a time series using past data. Given some price data for the past n days the program will predict either buy if it predicts the price will rise, sell if fall, leave if there is too little movement.
From my understanding, I work out the probability of the model being accurate with regards to buying with the following algorithm after testing it on the historical data and recording correct and incorrect predictions.
prob-b-given-a = correct-buy-predictions / total
prob-a = actual-buy-count / total
prob-b = prediction-buy-count / total
prob-a-given-b = (prob-b-given-a * prob-a) / prob-b
fitness = prob-a-given-b //last step for clarification
Am I interpreting Bayes' theorem correctly and is this a suitable fitness function?
How would I combine the fitness function for all predictions? (in my example I only show the predictive probability of the buy prediction)
All,
I am doing Bayesian modeling using rjags. However, when the number of observation is larger than 1000. The graph size is too big.
More specifically, I am doing a Bayesian ranking problem. Traditionally, one observation means one X[i, 1:N]-Y[i] pair, where X[i, 1:N] means the i-th item is represented by a N-size predictor vector, and Y[i] is a response. The objective is to minimize the point-wise error of predicted values,for example, least square error.
A ranking problem is different. Since we more care about the order, we use a pair-wise 1-0 indicator to represent the order between Y[i] and Y[j], for example, when Y[i]>Y[j], I(i,j)=1; otherwise I(i,j)=0. We treat this 1-0 indicator as an observation. Therefore, assuming we have K items: Y[1:K], the number of indicator is 0.5*K*(K-1). Hence when K is increased from 500 to 5000, the number of observations is very large, i.e. from 500^2 to 5000^2. The garph size of the rjags model is large too, for example graph size > 500,000. And the log-posterior will be very small.
And it takes a long time to complete the training. I think the consumed time is >40 hours. It is not practical for me to do further experiment. Therefore, do you have any idea to speed up the rjags. I heard that the RStan is faster than Rjags. Any one who has similar experience?