I have some difficulties choosing the right analysis to perform on my data. The goal of my study is to verify the impact of 3 treatment (walking, ORV use and motorcycle use) on vegetation growth of a coastal ecosystem. My response variables are the density of plants (# of individuals), their height, the biomass of plants and the nutrient content of leaves and soil. I made an experimental design where i am testing my 3 treatments following a gradient of 4 intensities of use (from null to very intense), on 4 distinct transect lines. I also want to know if the slope have an effect on vegetation growth, so every transect have been placed in order to have a portion on an ascending, descending and plane slope. All 12 transect lines (4 intensities, 3 treatments) have been placed in a block to facilitate sampling and 8 replicas (8 blocks) were made across the ecosystem. In every block, the 4 transects of intensities of a treatment are placed aside to avoid sampling mistakes, but the arrangement of the intensities transects within the treatment section was randomly made. I do not want to compare the treatments with each other, but the effect that one treatment has on vegetation growth following 4 intensities and 3 slopes options. I joined an example of a block to facilitate comprehension of the experimental design.
Example of a block
I first thought of a split plot design, but as i do not compare my treatments with each other, i i do not think it is the best option. My idea here, making the analysis on one treatment at the time, is to perform a blocking analysis with an ANOVA on every response variable (density, vegetation height, biomass, nutrients), considering the slope as the block in the analysis and to compare the intensities within those blocks. In this case, i do not think that i can consider the natural environmental variations of the true experimental blocks (ex. difference of slope steepness between blocks). Is there a way to include a random effect (experimental block) in the analysis? Is this way the best way to analyse my data?
Related
For example, can we consider the count of emergency room visit as a continuous variable when we do regression?
In general, it is risky to treat a discrete numerical variable as though it is equivalent to a continuous variable. This is especially true if your discrete variable represents some sort of categorical information (e.g. red/blue/green), unless the categories have some natural one-dimensional ordering (e.g. ages grouped into 10-year bands), and the numbers representing the different categories are, in some sense, appropriately spaced when mapped into the continuous space.
In your case, if the discrete variable is a count of patient visits, it may be more reasonable to treat this as though it is a continuous variable, especially if those counts tend to be large. Under those circumstances, it may be more reasonable to assume that the counts resemble random numbers drawn from a Gaussian distribution (following the Central Limit theorem), which may fit well with the underlying statistical assumptions of popular regression algorithms. However, if the counts are smaller, or have a high probability of outliers, then it may be more risky to treat them as though they are continuous variables.
Is it possible to calculate standard errors for Differential Evolution?
From the Wikipedia entry:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Differential_evolution
It's not derivative based (indeed that is one of its strengths) but how then so you calculate the standard errors?
I would have thought some kind of bootstrapping strategy might have been applicable but can't seem to find any sources than apply bootstrapping to DE?
Baz
Concerning the standard errors, differential evolution is just like any other evolutionary algorithm.
Using a bootstrapping strategy seems a good idea: the usual formulas assume a normal (Gaussian) distribution for the underlying data. That's almost never true for evolutionary computation (exponential distributions being far more common, probably followed by bimodal distributions).
The simplest bootstrap method involves taking the original data set of N numbers and sampling from it to form a new sample (a resample) that is also of size N. The resample is taken from the original using sampling with replacement. This process is repeated a large number of times (typically 1000 or 10000 times) and for each of these bootstrap samples we compute its mean / median (each of these are called bootstrap estimates).
The standard deviation (SD) of the means is the bootstrapped standard error (SE) of the mean and the SD of the medians is the bootstrapped SE of the median (the 2.5th and 97.5th centiles of the means are the bootstrapped 95% confidence limits for the mean).
Warnings:
the word population is used with different meanings in different contexts (bootstrapping vs evolutionary algorithm)
in any GA or GP, the average of the population tells you almost nothing of interest. Use the mean/median of the best-of-run
the average of a set that is not normally distributed produces a value that behaves non-intuitively. Especially if the probability distribution is skewed: large values in "tail" can dominate and average tends to reflect the typical value of the "worst" data not the typical value of the data in general. In this case it's better the median
Some interesting links are:
A short guide to using statistics in Evolutionary Computation
An Introduction to Statistics for EC Experimental Analysis
I'm developing machine learning algorithms which classify images based on training data.
During the image preprocessing stages, there are several parameters which I can modify that affect the data I feed my algorithms (for example, I can change the Hessian Threshold when extracting SURF features). So the flow thus far looks like:
[param1, param2, param3...] => [black box] => accuracy %
My problem is: with so many parameters at my disposal, how can I systematically pick values which give me optimized results/accuracy? A naive approach is to run i nested for-loops (assuming i parameters) and just iterate through all parameter combinations, but if it takes 5 minute to calculate an accuracy from my "black box" system this would take a long, long time.
This being said, are there any algorithms or techniques which can search for optimal parameters in a black box system? I was thinking of taking a course in Discrete Optimization but I'm not sure if that would be the best use of my time.
Thank you for your time and help!
Edit (to answer comments):
I have 5-8 parameters. Each parameter has its own range. One parameter can be 0-1000 (integer), while another can be 0 to 1 (real number). Nothing is stopping me from multithreading the black box evaluation.
Also, there are some parts of the black box that have some randomness to them. For example, one stage is using k-means clustering. Each black box evaluation, the cluster centers may change. I run k-means several times to (hopefully) avoid local optima. In addition, I evaluate the black box multiple times and find the median accuracy in order to further mitigate randomness and outliers.
As a partial solution, a grid search of moderate resolution and range can be recursively repeated in the areas where the n-parameters result in the optimal values.
Each n-dimensioned result from each step would be used as a starting point for the next iteration.
The key is that for each iteration the resolution in absolute terms is kept constant (i.e. keep the iteration period constant) but the range decreased so as to reduce the pitch/granular step size.
I'd call it a ‘contracting mesh’ :)
Keep in mind that while it avoids full brute-force complexity it only reaches exhaustive resolution in the final iteration (this is what defines the final iteration).
Also that the outlined process is only exhaustive on a subset of the points that may or may not include the global minimum - i.e. it could result in a local minima.
(You can always chase your tail though by offsetting the initial grid by some sub-initial-resolution amount and compare results...)
Have fun!
Here is the solution to your problem.
A method behind it is described in this paper.
I searched the site but did not find exactly what I was looking for... I wanted to generate a discrete random number from normal distribution.
For example, if I have a range from a minimum of 4 and a maximum of 10 and an average of 7. What code or function call ( Objective C preferred ) would I need to return a number in that range. Naturally, due to normal distribution more numbers returned would center round the average of 7.
As a second example, can the bell curve/distribution be skewed toward one end of the other? Lets say I need to generate a random number with a range of minimum of 4 and maximum of 10, and I want the majority of the numbers returned to center around the number 8 with a natural fall of based on a skewed bell curve.
Any help is greatly appreciated....
Anthony
What do you need this for? Can you do it the craps player's way?
Generate two random integers in the range of 2 to 5 (inclusive, of course) and add them together. Or flip a coin (0,1) six times and add 4 to the result.
Summing multiple dice produces a normal distribution (a "bell curve"), while eliminating high or low throws can be used to skew the distribution in various ways.
The key is you are going for discrete numbers (and I hope you mean integers by that). Multiple dice throws famously generate a normal distribution. In fact, I think that's how we were first introduced to the Gaussian curve in school.
Of course the more throws, the more closely you approximate the bell curve. Rolling a single die gives a flat line. Rolling two dice just creates a ramp up and down that isn't terribly close to a bell. Six coin flips gets you closer.
So consider this...
If I understand your question correctly, you only have seven possible outcomes--the integers (4,5,6,7,8,9,10). You can set up an array of seven probabilities to approximate any distribution you like.
Many frameworks and libraries have this built-in.
Also, just like TokenMacGuy said a normal distribution isn't characterized by the interval it's defined on, but rather by two parameters: Mean μ and standard deviation σ. With both these parameters you can confine a certain quantile of the distribution to a certain interval, so that 95 % of all points fall in that interval. But resticting it completely to any interval other than (−∞, ∞) is impossible.
There are several methods to generate normal-distributed values from uniform random values (which is what most random or pseudorandom number generators are generating:
The Box-Muller transform is probably the easiest although not exactly fast to compute. Depending on the number of numbers you need, it should be sufficient, though and definitely very easy to write.
Another option is Marsaglia's Polar method which is usually faster1.
A third method is the Ziggurat algorithm which is considerably faster to compute but much more complex to program. In applications that really use a lot of random numbers it may be the best choice, though.
As a general advice, though: Don't write it yourself if you have access to a library that generates normal-distributed random numbers for you already.
For skewing your distribution I'd just use a regular normal distribution, choosing μ and σ appropriately for one side of your curve and then determine on which side of your wanted mean a point fell, stretching it appropriately to fit your desired distribution.
For generating only integers I'd suggest you just round towards the nearest integer when the random number happens to fall within your desired interval and reject it if it doesn't (drawing a new random number then). This way you won't artificially skew the distribution (such as you would if you were clamping the values at 4 or 10, respectively).
1 In testing with deliberately bad random number generators (yes, worse than RANDU) I've noticed that the polar method results in an endless loop, rejecting every sample. Won't happen with random numbers that fulfill the usual statistic expectations to them, though.
Yes, there are sophisticated mathematical solutions, but for "simple but practical" I'd go with Nosredna's comment. For a simple Java solution:
Random random=new Random();
public int bell7()
{
int n=4;
for (int x=0;x<6;++x)
n+=random.nextInt(2);
return n;
}
If you're not a Java person, Random.nextInt(n) returns a random integer between 0 and n-1. I think the rest should be similar to what you'd see in any programming language.
If the range was large, then instead of nextInt(2)'s I'd use a bigger number in there so there would be fewer iterations through the loop, depending on frequency of call and performance requirements.
Dan Dyer and Jay are exactly right. What you really want is a binomial distribution, not a normal distribution. The shape of a binomial distribution looks a lot like a normal distribution, but it is discrete and bounded whereas a normal distribution is continuous and unbounded.
Jay's code generates a binomial distribution with 6 trials and a 50% probability of success on each trial. If you want to "skew" your distribution, simply change the line that decides whether to add 1 to n so that the probability is something other than 50%.
The normal distribution is not described by its endpoints. Normally it's described by it's mean (which you have given to be 7) and its standard deviation. An important feature of this is that it is possible to get a value far outside the expected range from this distribution, although that will be vanishingly rare, the further you get from the mean.
The usual means for getting a value from a distribution is to generate a random value from a uniform distribution, which is quite easily done with, for example, rand(), and then use that as an argument to a cumulative distribution function, which maps probabilities to upper bounds. For the standard distribution, this function is
F(x) = 0.5 - 0.5*erf( (x-μ)/(σ * sqrt(2.0)))
where erf() is the error function which may be described by a taylor series:
erf(z) = 2.0/sqrt(2.0) * Σ∞n=0 ((-1)nz2n + 1)/(n!(2n + 1))
I'll leave it as an excercise to translate this into C.
If you prefer not to engage in the exercise, you might consider using the Gnu Scientific Library, which among many other features, has a technique to generate random numbers in one of many common distributions, of which the Gaussian Distribution (hint) is one.
Obviously, all of these functions return floating point values. You will have to use some rounding strategy to convert to a discrete value. A useful (but naive) approach is to simply downcast to integer.
I am using simulated annealing to solve an NP-complete resource scheduling problem. For each candidate ordering of the tasks I compute several different costs (or energy values). Some examples are (though the specifics are probably irrelevant to the question):
global_finish_time: The total number of days that the schedule spans.
split_cost: The number of days by which each task is delayed due to interruptions by other tasks (this is meant to discourage interruption of a task once it has started).
deadline_cost: The sum of the squared number of days by which each missed deadline is overdue.
The traditional acceptance probability function looks like this (in Python):
def acceptance_probability(old_cost, new_cost, temperature):
if new_cost < old_cost:
return 1.0
else:
return math.exp((old_cost - new_cost) / temperature)
So far I have combined my first two costs into one by simply adding them, so that I can feed the result into acceptance_probability. But what I would really want is for deadline_cost to always take precedence over global_finish_time, and for global_finish_time to take precedence over split_cost.
So my question to Stack Overflow is: how can I design an acceptance probability function that takes multiple energies into account but always considers the first energy to be more important than the second energy, and so on? In other words, I would like to pass in old_cost and new_cost as tuples of several costs and return a sensible value .
Edit: After a few days of experimenting with the proposed solutions I have concluded that the only way that works well enough for me is Mike Dunlavey's suggestion, even though this creates many other difficulties with cost components that have different units. I am practically forced to compare apples with oranges.
So, I put some effort into "normalizing" the values. First, deadline_cost is a sum of squares, so it grows exponentially while the other components grow linearly. To address this I use the square root to get a similar growth rate. Second, I developed a function that computes a linear combination of the costs, but auto-adjusts the coefficients according to the highest cost component seen so far.
For example, if the tuple of highest costs is (A, B, C) and the input cost vector is (x, y, z), the linear combination is BCx + Cy + z. That way, no matter how high z gets it will never be more important than an x value of 1.
This creates "jaggies" in the cost function as new maximum costs are discovered. For example, if C goes up then BCx and Cy will both be higher for a given (x, y, z) input and so will differences between costs. A higher cost difference means that the acceptance probability will drop, as if the temperature was suddenly lowered an extra step. In practice though this is not a problem because the maximum costs are updated only a few times in the beginning and do not change later. I believe this could even be theoretically proven to converge to a correct result since we know that the cost will converge toward a lower value.
One thing that still has me somewhat confused is what happens when the maximum costs are 1.0 and lower, say 0.5. With a maximum vector of (0.5, 0.5, 0.5) this would give the linear combination 0.5*0.5*x + 0.5*y + z, i.e. the order of precedence is suddenly reversed. I suppose the best way to deal with it is to use the maximum vector to scale all values to given ranges, so that the coefficients can always be the same (say, 100x + 10y + z). But I haven't tried that yet.
mbeckish is right.
Could you make a linear combination of the different energies, and adjust the coefficients?
Possibly log-transforming them in and out?
I've done some MCMC using Metropolis-Hastings. In that case I'm defining the (non-normalized) log-likelihood of a particular state (given its priors), and I find that a way to clarify my thinking about what I want.
I would take a hint from multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) and have it transition if all of the objectives simultaneously pass with the acceptance_probability function you gave. This will have the effect of exploring the Pareto front much like the standard simulated annealing explores plateaus of same-energy solutions.
However, this does give up on the idea of having the first one take priority.
You will probably have to tweak your parameters, such as giving it a higher initial temperature.
I would consider something along the lines of:
If (new deadline_cost > old deadline_cost)
return (calculate probability)
else if (new global finish time > old global finish time)
return (calculate probability)
else if (new split cost > old split cost)
return (calculate probability)
else
return (1.0)
Of course each of the three places you calculate the probability could use a different function.
It depends on what you mean by "takes precedence".
For example, what if the deadline_cost goes down by 0.001, but the global_finish_time cost goes up by 10000? Do you return 1.0, because the deadline_cost decreased, and that takes precedence over anything else?
This seems like it is a judgment call that only you can make, unless you can provide enough background information on the project so that others can suggest their own informed judgment call.